SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: ARACILIK VE KURUMSAL YÖNETİM ÜZERİNE BİR MODEL

Öz

Bu çalışma, kurumsal yönetim uygulamalarının Türkiye’de yabancı sermayeli anonim şirket kuruluşları üzerindeki etkisini incelerken, aynı zamanda BIST Sürdürülebilirlik Endeksi’nin olası aracılık rolünü de değerlendirmektedir. Geleneksel yaklaşımların doğrudan yabancı yatırımları (DYY) yalnızca makro düzeydeki sermaye akımları üzerinden ölçmesinin aksine, bu araştırma firma kuruluşunu “pazara giriş niyeti” için bir vekil değişken olarak kullanmakta ve böylelikle daha mikro düzeyli ve davranışsal bir perspektif sunmaktadır. Yöntemsel olarak, çalışma Ocak 2015 – Haziran 2025 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak sağlam en çok olabilirlik tahmini (MLMV) ile Yapısal Eşitlik Modellemesi (YEM) ve doğrulayıcı ARIMA regresyonunu uygulamaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, daha yüksek kurumsal yönetim puanlarının hem sürdürülebilirlik göstergeleri hem de yabancı sermayeli firma kuruluşları üzerinde negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etki yarattığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuç, yabancı yatırımcıların daha sıkı yönetim çerçevelerini uyum maliyetlerini artırıcı ve stratejik esnekliği azaltıcı bir unsur olarak değerlendirdiklerini göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, BIST 100 Endeksi ve enflasyon oranları yabancı firma girişlerini pozitif ve anlamlı şekilde etkilemekte ve bu durum, piyasa performansının ve enflasyonist dönemlerde reel varlık talebinin önemini vurgulamaktadır. Döviz kurları, sürdürülebilirlik ölçütleri ve DYY stoku etkileri ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Genel olarak, çalışma yabancı yatırımcı davranışlarının Türkiye’de yalnızca yönetişim standartlarından değil, aynı zamanda piyasa dinamikleri ve makroekonomik koşullardan da etkilendiğini ortaya koyarak literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Bulgular, yatırımcı dostu kurumsal çerçeveler ile şeffaflığı güvence altına alan etkili yönetişim mekanizmaları arasında dengeli bir politika tasarımının gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• doğrudan yabancı yatırım
• kurumsal yönetim
• sürdürülebilirlik
• gelişmekte olan piyasalar
• ARIMA

The Impact of Sustainability on Foreign Direct Investment: A Model of Mediation and Corporate Governance

Öz

This study examines the impact of corporate governance practices on the establishment of foreign-capital joint stock companies (anonim şirket) in Türkiye, while also assessing the potential mediating role of the BIST Sustainability Index. In contrast to conventional approaches that measure foreign direct investment (FDI) solely through macro-level capital inflows, this research employs firm incorporation as a proxy for “market entry intention,” thereby providing a more micro-level and behavioral perspective. Methodologically, the study applies Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with robust maximum likelihood estimation (MLMV), alongside a confirmatory ARIMA regression framework, using monthly data for the period January 2015 – June 2025. The empirical findings reveal that higher corporate governance scores exert a negative and statistically significant effect on both sustainability indicators and the establishment of foreign-capital firms. This result suggests that foreign investors perceive stricter governance frameworks as factors that increase compliance costs and constrain strategic flexibility. By contrast, the BIST 100 Index and inflation rates affect foreign firm entry positively and significantly, underscoring the importance of overall market performance and the demand for real assets during inflationary periods. The effects of exchange rates, sustainability measures, and the FDI stock are not found to be statistically significant. Overall, the study contributes to the literature by demonstrating that the behavior of foreign investors in Türkiye is shaped not only by governance standards but also by market dynamics and broader macroeconomic conditions. The findings point to the need for a balanced policy design that simultaneously promotes investor-friendly institutional frameworks and preserves effective governance mechanisms that ensure transparency.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• foreign direct investment
• corporate governance
• sustainability
• emerging markets
• ARIMA

Kaynakça

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