YÜKSEK-ORTA GELİRLİ ÜLKELERDE TURİZM VE GSYİH ARASINDAKİ BOOTSTRAP NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2020, , 80 - 89, 20.12.2020

Mustafa Koçoğlu , Bayram Veli Doyar

https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.722021

Öz

Ülkelerin gelirlerini artıran kaynaklardan biri de turizmdir. Birçok çalışma çeşitli ülkelerde ve ülke gruplarında GSYİH ile turizm arasında nedensel ilişkiler olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu çerçevede, mevcut çalışmanın amacı üst-orta gelir grubundaki 33 ülke için turizm ve GSYİH arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektir. Bu amaca yönelik olarak 1995-2018 dönemini kapsayan yıllık verilere Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) tarafından önerilen bootstrap nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Bu test hem yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve bağımsızlığı durumlarında, hem de gözlem sayısı düşükken uygulanabilen güçlü bir testtir. Sonuçlar Grenada ve Güney Afrika için turizmden GSYİH’ye tek yönlü bir nedensellik; Arnavutluk, Bulgaristan, Dominik Cumhuriyeti, Ekvador, Jamaika, Peru ve Sri Lanka için GSYİH’den turizme tek yönlü bir nedensellik; Ermenistan, Mauritius ve Kuzey Makedonya için turizm ve GSYİH arasında çift yönlü nedensellik olduğunu; ancak geriye kalan 21 ülke için nedenselliğin olmadığını göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turizm, GSYİH, Üst-Orta Gelirli Ülkeler, Bootstrap Nedensellik

BOOTSTRAP PANEL CAUSALITY TESTING OF TOURISM AND GDP NEXUS FOR UPPER-MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES

Öz

One of the sources that increases the income of the countries is tourism. Many studies show that there are causal associations between GDP and tourism in various countries and country groups. In this respect, the purpose of current paper is to explore the causal relationship between tourism and GDP in 33 upper-middle income countries. Therefore, bootstrap panel causality test of Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) to annual data from 1995 to 2018. This test is powerful both under cross-section dependency and independency, also when the number of observations is small. The findings reveal that a unidirectional causality from tourism to GDP for Grenada and South Africa; a unidirectional causality from tourism to GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Dominic Republic, Ecuador, Jamaica, Peru and Sri Lanka; bidirectional causality between tourism and GDP in Armenia, Mauritius and North Macedonia; and no causality for remaining 21 countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tourism, GDP, Upper-Middle Income Countries, Bootstrap Causality

Kaynakça

• Archer, B. (1995). Importance of tourism for the economy of Bermuda. Annals of Tourism Research, 22(4), 918-930.
• Aslan, A. (2013). Tourism development and economic growth in the Mediterranean countries: Evidence from panel Granger causality tests. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(4), 363-372. doi:10.1080/13683500.2013.768607.
• Balaguer, J. and Cantavella-Jordá, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied Economics, 34(7), 877-884. doi:10.1080/00036840110058923.
• Bilen, M., Yılancı, M. and Eryüzlü, H. (2015). Tourism development and economic growth: a panel Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(1), 27-32. doi:10.1080/13683500.2015.1073231.
• Brida, J. G., Barquet, A. and Risso, W. A. (2009). Causality between economic growth and tourism expansion: Empirical evidence from Trentino - Alto Adige. Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, 5(2), 87-98.
• Chou, M. C. (2013). Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 33, 226-232. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.024.
• Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A., (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
• Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3), 305-316.
• Durbarry, R. (2004). Tourism and economic growth: the case of Mauritius. Tourism Economics, 10(4), 389-401.
• Durgun Kaygısız, A. (2015). Net turizm gelirleri ve büyüme ilişkisi: VAR model-Granger nedensellik analizi. Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business/Alanya Isletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(2), 155-164.
• Ekanayake, E. M. and Long, A. E. (2012). Tourism development and economic growth in developing countries. The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, 6(1), 51-63.
• Emirmahmutoğlu, F. and Köse, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28, 870-876.
• Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 37(3), 424-438.
• Gündüz, L. and Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12, 499-504.
• Hatemi-J, A. (2016). On the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the UAE: a bootstrap approach with leveraged adjustments. Applied Economics Letters, 23(6), 424-427. doi:10.1080/13504851.2015.1078440.
• Hatemi-J, A., Gupta, R., Kasongo, A., Mboweni, T. and Netshitenzhe, N. (2018). Does tourism cause growth asymmetrically in a panel of G-7 countries? A short note. Empirica, 45(1), 49-57.
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
• Katırcıoğlu, S. (2009). Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the Bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management, 30, 17-20.
• Khoshnevis Yazdi, S., Homa Salehi, K. and Soheilzad, M. (2017). The relationship between tourism, foreign direct investment and economic growth: Evidence from Iran. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(1), 15-26.
• Lanza, A. and Pigliaru, F. (2000). Tourism and economic growth: Does country’s size matter? Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Economiche e Commerciali, 47, 77-85.
• Lee, C. C. and Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29, 180-192. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2007.02.013
• Mulok, D., Kogid, M., Asid, R., Lily, J. and Mansur, K. M. (2012). Tourism and economic growth linkages in Malaysia. Journal for Sustainable Tourism Development, 1(1), 3-10.
• Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., Prasad, A. and Prasad, B. C. (2010). Tourism and economic growth: a panel data analysis for Pacific Island countries. Tourism economics, 16(1), 169-183.
• Nowak, J. J., Sahli, M. and Cortés-Jiménez, I. (2007). Tourism, capital good imports and economic growth: theory and evidence for Spain. Tourism Economics, 13(4), 515-536.
• Oh, C. O. (2005). The contribution of tourism development to economic growth in the Korean economy. Tourism Management, 26, 39-44. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2003.09.014.
• Ohlan, R. (2017). The relationship between tourism, financial development and economic growth in India. Future Business Journal, 3, 9-22. doi:10.1016/j.fbj.2017.01.003.
• Özturk, İ. and Acaravcı, A. (2009). On the causality between tourism growth and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences, 5(25), 73-81.
• Payne, J. E. and Mervar, A. (2010). Research note: The tourism–growth nexus in Croatia. Tourism Economics, 16(4), 1089-1094.
• Seghir, G. M., Mostéfa, B., Abbes, S. M. and Zakaryaa, G. Y. (2015). Tourism spending-Economic growth causality in 49 Countries: A dynamic panel data approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 1613-1623. doi:10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00402-5.
• Sims, C. A. (1972). Money, income, and causality. The American economic review, 62(4), 540-552.
• Stine, R. A. (1987). Estimating properties of autoregressive forecasts. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, 1072-1078.
• Tang, C. F. and Abosedra, S. (2016). Tourism and growth in Lebanon: New evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches. Empirical Economics, 50(2), 679-696.
• Tang, C. F. and Tan, E. C. (2015). Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth? Tourism Management, 46, 158-163.
• Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
• Tuğcu, C. T. (2014). Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207-212. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2013.12.007.
• World Bank (2020). World Development Indicators. Access address: https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators, (April 10, 2020).