Öz
Bu çalışmada, Avrupa Birliği (AB) ile
komşu ülkeler arasındaki dış ticaret ilişkileri, zaman serisi yöntemi
kullanılarak yakınsama hipotezi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analizde kullanılan
testler; ADF, PP, KPSS, NG-Perron ve yapısal kırılmalı Lee-Strazicich’dir.
Çalışma kapsamında; Avrupa Komşuluk Politikası’nın eylem planlarının yapıldığı
ülkeler yer almıştır. Bu ülkeler; Azerbaycan, Ermenistan, Fas, Gürcistan, İsrail,
Lübnan, Mısır, Moldova, Tunus, Ukrayna ve Ürdün’dür. Analiz sonucunda; AB ile
olan dış ticaret ilişkileri kapsamında Mısır’ın ihracatında ve Tunus ile Fas’ın
ithalatında yakınsamanın gerçekleşmediği; bununla beraber, diğer ülkelerin
ihracatında ve ithalatında yakınsamanın gerçekleştiği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Avrupa Birliği Avrupa Komşuluk Politikası Dış Ticaret Yakınsama Analizi Birim Kök Testleri
Kaynakça
- Abramovitz, M. (1986) “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind”, The Journal of Economic History, 46 (2): 385-406.Akıncı, M., Yılmaz, Ö. (2012) “Türkiye ile AB arasındaki Kişi Başına Gelir Yakınsaması: Farklardaki Fark Analizi”, Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 49 ( 567): 15-26.Atalay, S.S. (2007) “Yeni Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinde ve Türkiye’de Reel Yakınsama”, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Dış İlişkiler Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara, 1-91.Barro, R. J. ve Xavier S. M. (1992) “Convergence”, Journal of Political Economy, 100 (2): 223-251.Baumol, W. J. (1986) “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show”, The American Economic Review, 76 (5): 1072-1085.Bernard, A. Ve Durlauf, S. (1995) “Convergence in International Output”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10 (2): 97-108.Carlino, G., Mills, L. (1993) “Are U.S Regional Incomes Converging?: A time series analysis”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32 (2): 335-346.Ceylan, R. (2010) “Yakınsama Hipotezi: Teorik Tartışmalar”, Sosyoekonomi, 11 (11): 48-60.Cellini, R., Scorcu, A. (2000) “Segmented stochastic convergence across the G-7 countries”, Empirical Economics, Springer, 25(3): 463-474.Ceylan, R. (2009) “Ekonomik Büyüme ve Yakınsama Süreci”, Doktora Tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Ankara. Cunado, J. (2011): “Structural Breaks and Real Convergence in Opec Countries”, Journal Applied Economics , 18 (1): 101-117.Dawson, W. J., Sen, A. (2007) “New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries”, Empirical Economics, 33: 199-230.Delgado, F., Presno, M. (2011): “Convergence of fiscal pressure in the EU: a time series approach”, Applied Economics, 43: 4257-4267.Erlat, H. (2012): “Türkiye’de Bölgesel Yakınsama Sorununa Zaman Dizisi Yaklaşımı”, Discussion Paper, Turkish Economic Association, 64: 251-276. Esenyel, M. (2017) “Türkiye’de Enerji Yakınsama Hipotezinin Sınanması: Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök Analizi”, Social Sciences Research Journal, 6 (3): 42-52. European Commission. (2004) Strategy Paper. https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood/enlargement/sites/near/files/2004_communication_from_the_commission__european_neighbourhood_policy_-_strategy_paper.pdf., (Erişim: 07.12.2017).Galvao, A. F., Gomes, R. (2007) “Convergence or Divergence in Latin America? A time series analysis”, Applied Economics, 39 (11): 1353-1360.Greasley, D., Oxley, L. (1995) “A Time Series Perspective on Convergence: Australia, UK nad USA since 1870”, The Economic Record, 71 (214): 259-275.Granger C.W.J., Newbold P. (1974) “Spurious regressions in Econometris”, Journal of Econometrics, 2: 111-120.Herrerias, M., Monfort, J. (2013) “Testing Stochastic Convergence across Chinese Provinces, 1952-2008”, Regional Studies, 49 (4): 485-501.I.M.F. (2017) “Direction of trade statistics 2017”, http://data.imf.org/?sk=9D6028D4-F14A-464C-A2F2-59B2CD424B85, (Erişim: 05.10.2017).Islam, N. (2003) “What have we learnt from the Convergence Debate”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 17 (3): 309-362. Lee, J., Strazicich, M. C., ve Day, E. (2004) “Are Incomes Converging among OECD countries ? Time series evidence with two structural breaks”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 26 (1): 131-145. Lee, J., Strazicizh, M. (2004) “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Working Papers 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.Lee, J., Strazicizh, M. (2003) “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structial Breaks”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 (4): 1082-1089.Meng, M., Payne, J., Lee, J. (2013): “Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries”, Energy Economics, 36: 536-545.Öztürk, L., Ay, S. ve Keser H. (2013) “Turkey’s Convergence to the EU: Catching up or Falling Behind?”, 2nd International Scientific Conference Economic and Social Development, Paris.Öztürk, L. (2013) “Türkiye Avrupa Birliğine Yakınsıyor mu? Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi, 1950-2008”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 13 (14): 527-538.Savacı, S., Karşıyakalı, S. (2016) “Ülkelerarası gelir yakınsaması analizi: AB Ülkeleri ve Türkiye”, Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 33: 237-257.Solow, R. (1956) “A Contrubution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1): 65-94.Tunalı, Ç. B., Yılancı, V. (2010) “Are Per Capita incomes of MENA countries converging or diverging”, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 389 (21): 4855-4862.Wisniewski, D. (2013) “The Eastern Partnership-It is High Time To Start A Real Partnership”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1-31.Zachmann, G. (2007) “Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?”, Energy Economics, 30: 1659-1671.Zavaleta, A., Walls W.D, Rusco, F., W. (2015) “Refining for export and the convergence of petroleum product prices”, Energy Economics, 47: 206-214.
THE EUROPEAN NEIGHBORHOOD POLICY: EUROPEAN UNION’S FOREIGN TRADE RELATIONSHIP WITH NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES
Öz
In this study, it is aimed to analyze the foreign trade relations between the European Union (EU) and the neighboring countries by means of convergence hypothesis using time series method. Tests used in the analysis are ADF, PP, KPSS, NG-Perron and structured fractured Lee-Strazicich. Within the scope of the study, the countries which took part are the ones where the action plans of the European Neighborhood Policy have been made. These countries are Azerbaijan, Armenia, Morocco, Georgia, Israel, Lebanon, Egypt, Moldova, Tunisia, Ukraine and Jordan. As a result of the analysis, within the scope of foreign trade relations with the EU, it was found that Egypt’s exports and Tunisia’s and Morocco’s imports did not converge; however, other countries’ exports and imports converged.
Anahtar Kelimeler
European Union European Neighborhood Policy Foreign Trade Convergence Analysis Unit Root
Kaynakça
- Abramovitz, M. (1986) “Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind”, The Journal of Economic History, 46 (2): 385-406.Akıncı, M., Yılmaz, Ö. (2012) “Türkiye ile AB arasındaki Kişi Başına Gelir Yakınsaması: Farklardaki Fark Analizi”, Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 49 ( 567): 15-26.Atalay, S.S. (2007) “Yeni Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinde ve Türkiye’de Reel Yakınsama”, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Dış İlişkiler Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara, 1-91.Barro, R. J. ve Xavier S. M. (1992) “Convergence”, Journal of Political Economy, 100 (2): 223-251.Baumol, W. J. (1986) “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show”, The American Economic Review, 76 (5): 1072-1085.Bernard, A. Ve Durlauf, S. (1995) “Convergence in International Output”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10 (2): 97-108.Carlino, G., Mills, L. (1993) “Are U.S Regional Incomes Converging?: A time series analysis”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32 (2): 335-346.Ceylan, R. (2010) “Yakınsama Hipotezi: Teorik Tartışmalar”, Sosyoekonomi, 11 (11): 48-60.Cellini, R., Scorcu, A. (2000) “Segmented stochastic convergence across the G-7 countries”, Empirical Economics, Springer, 25(3): 463-474.Ceylan, R. (2009) “Ekonomik Büyüme ve Yakınsama Süreci”, Doktora Tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Ankara. Cunado, J. (2011): “Structural Breaks and Real Convergence in Opec Countries”, Journal Applied Economics , 18 (1): 101-117.Dawson, W. J., Sen, A. (2007) “New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries”, Empirical Economics, 33: 199-230.Delgado, F., Presno, M. (2011): “Convergence of fiscal pressure in the EU: a time series approach”, Applied Economics, 43: 4257-4267.Erlat, H. (2012): “Türkiye’de Bölgesel Yakınsama Sorununa Zaman Dizisi Yaklaşımı”, Discussion Paper, Turkish Economic Association, 64: 251-276. Esenyel, M. (2017) “Türkiye’de Enerji Yakınsama Hipotezinin Sınanması: Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök Analizi”, Social Sciences Research Journal, 6 (3): 42-52. European Commission. (2004) Strategy Paper. https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood/enlargement/sites/near/files/2004_communication_from_the_commission__european_neighbourhood_policy_-_strategy_paper.pdf., (Erişim: 07.12.2017).Galvao, A. F., Gomes, R. (2007) “Convergence or Divergence in Latin America? A time series analysis”, Applied Economics, 39 (11): 1353-1360.Greasley, D., Oxley, L. (1995) “A Time Series Perspective on Convergence: Australia, UK nad USA since 1870”, The Economic Record, 71 (214): 259-275.Granger C.W.J., Newbold P. (1974) “Spurious regressions in Econometris”, Journal of Econometrics, 2: 111-120.Herrerias, M., Monfort, J. (2013) “Testing Stochastic Convergence across Chinese Provinces, 1952-2008”, Regional Studies, 49 (4): 485-501.I.M.F. (2017) “Direction of trade statistics 2017”, http://data.imf.org/?sk=9D6028D4-F14A-464C-A2F2-59B2CD424B85, (Erişim: 05.10.2017).Islam, N. (2003) “What have we learnt from the Convergence Debate”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 17 (3): 309-362. Lee, J., Strazicich, M. C., ve Day, E. (2004) “Are Incomes Converging among OECD countries ? Time series evidence with two structural breaks”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 26 (1): 131-145. Lee, J., Strazicizh, M. (2004) “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Working Papers 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.Lee, J., Strazicizh, M. (2003) “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structial Breaks”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 (4): 1082-1089.Meng, M., Payne, J., Lee, J. (2013): “Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries”, Energy Economics, 36: 536-545.Öztürk, L., Ay, S. ve Keser H. (2013) “Turkey’s Convergence to the EU: Catching up or Falling Behind?”, 2nd International Scientific Conference Economic and Social Development, Paris.Öztürk, L. (2013) “Türkiye Avrupa Birliğine Yakınsıyor mu? Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi, 1950-2008”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 13 (14): 527-538.Savacı, S., Karşıyakalı, S. (2016) “Ülkelerarası gelir yakınsaması analizi: AB Ülkeleri ve Türkiye”, Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 33: 237-257.Solow, R. (1956) “A Contrubution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1): 65-94.Tunalı, Ç. B., Yılancı, V. (2010) “Are Per Capita incomes of MENA countries converging or diverging”, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 389 (21): 4855-4862.Wisniewski, D. (2013) “The Eastern Partnership-It is High Time To Start A Real Partnership”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1-31.Zachmann, G. (2007) “Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?”, Energy Economics, 30: 1659-1671.Zavaleta, A., Walls W.D, Rusco, F., W. (2015) “Refining for export and the convergence of petroleum product prices”, Energy Economics, 47: 206-214.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Aralık 2019 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2019 |