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The Analysis of Structural Changes in the Reserves of the Bank of England

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 4, 797 - 814, 30.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.896221

Öz

Bank of England, one of the leading examples of modern banking, has been established at the end of the 17th century. Economic and social turmoils and wars that broke up in the first half of the 19th century have led to a serious debate between the Currency School and Banking School regarding the primary function of BoE. The Bank Charter Act dated 1844 has been enacted to eliminate the ongoing instabilities in the British economy. The act was suspended in 1847, 1857, and 1866 because of the developments. In this study, the effects of economic and non-economic developments on the Bank’s reserves are investigated using the structural breakpoint tests for the period between 1844 and 1866. To detect the presence of any regime shifts in both series mean and variance, the Bai and Perron and ICSS algorithm procedures were employed. The findings of the study reveal the effects of domestic and foreign military, political and economic developments directly affecting the UK, on the reserves of the Bank.
Key Words: Bank of England, The Bank Charter Act of 1844, Structural breaks.
JEL Classification: N23, E58, E52

Kaynakça

  • Allen, L. (2001). The Global Financial System: 1750-2000. London: Reaktion Books Publishing.
  • Andreades, A. M. (1909). History of the Bank of England, 1640 to 1903 (Translated by Christabel Margaret Meredith). London: P. S. King & Son.
  • Anno Septimo & Octavo (1844), Act to Regulate the Issue of Bank Notes, and for giving to the Governor and Company of Bank of England Certain Privileges for a Limited Period. Victoria Regina, 329-343. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Vict/7-8/32?view=plain
  • Anson, M., Bholat, D., Kang, M. and Ryland, T. (2017). The Bank of England as Lender of Last Resort: New Historical Evidence from Daily Transactional Data. Bank of England Working Paper No. 691, 1-80.
  • Antipa, P. and Chamley, C. (2017). Monetary and Fiscal Policy in England during the French Wars (1793-1821). Banque de France Working Papers. No. 627, 1-40. https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/627.html
  • Arnon, A. (2010). Monetary Theory and Policy from Hume and Smith to Wicksell. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bai, J. and Perron, P. (1998), Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes. Econometrica, Vol. 66, Iss. 1, 47-78. https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540
  • Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 18, Iss. 1, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659
  • Bjerkseth, O. S. (2006). Volatility on Oslo Stock Exchange: Structural Breakpoints in Volatility Using the ICSS Algorithm. (Master Thesis), Norges Handelshoykole, Financial Economics.
  • Bordo, M. D. and Eugene N. W. (1991). A Tale of Two Currencies: British and French Finance During the Napoleonic Wars. The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 51, Iss. 2, 303-316. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2122576?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
  • Cook, C. (2005). Britain in the Nineteenth Century, 1815-1914. London: Routledge.
  • Davutyan, N. and Parke, W. R. (1995). The Operations of the Bank of England, 1890-1908: a Dynamic Probit Approach. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 27, Iss. 4, 1099-1112. https://doi.org/10.2307/2077792
  • De Kock, M. H. (1974). Central Banking. London: Crosby Lockwood Staples.
  • De Soto, J. H. (2006). Money, Bank Credit and Economic Cycles (Translated by Melinda A. Stroup). Alabama: Ludwig von Mises Institute.
  • Dornbusch, R. and Frenkel, J. A. (1984). The Gold Standard and the Bank of England in the Crisis of 1847. (Edited by Michael D. Bordo and Anna J. Schwartz). A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931. NBER, 233-276. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(84)90040-0
  • Dutton, J. (1984). The Bank of England and the Rules of the Game under the International Gold Standard: New Evidence. (Edited by Michael D. Bordo and Anna J. Schwart). A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931. NBER, 173-202. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11128/c11128.pdf
  • Eichengreen, B. (1992). Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Eltis, W. (2001). Lord Overstone and the Establishment of British Nineteenth-Century Monetary Orthodoxy. University of Oxford Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History, No. 42, 4-35. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/oxfesohwp/_5f042.htm
  • Esteve, V. and Requena, F. (2006). A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change. International Journal of the Economics of Business, Vol. 13, Iss. 1, 111-128. Doi: 10.1080/13571510500520036
  • Evans, D. M. (1859). The History of the Commercial Crisis, 1857-58 and the Stock Exchange Panic of 1859. London: Groombridge and Sons.
  • Francis, J. (1862). History of The Bank of England, Its Times and Tradition from 1694 to 1844. New York: Published at the Office of the Banker’s Magazine.
  • Goodhart, C. and Meinhard, J. (2015). Currency School versus Banking School: an Ongoing Confrontation. Economic Thought, Vol. 4, Iss. 2, 1-16. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/64068/1/Currency%20School%20versus%20Banking%20School.pdf
  • Güriş, S. and Çağlayan, E. (2000). Ekonometri, Temel Kavramlar. İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
  • Gürsakal, S. (2009). Varyans Kırılması Gözlemlenen Serilerde Garch Modelleri: Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, No. 32, 319-337. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/erciyesiibd/issue/5889/77913
  • Horsefield, J. K. (1944). The Origins of the Bank Charter Act, 1844. Economica, Vol. 11, Iss. 44, 180-189. https:/doi.org/10.2307/2549352
  • Hughes, J. R. T. (1967). Bank of England Reserve Policy. The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 27, Iss. 1, 92-93. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050700070728
  • Humphrey, M. T. and Keleher, R. E. (1984). The Lender of Last Resort, A Historical Perspective. Cato Journal, Vol. 4, Iss. 1, 275-321. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2120209
  • Inclan, C. and Tiao, G. C. (1994). Use of Cumulative Sums of Squares for Retrospective Detection of Changes of Variance. Journal of the Americal Statistical Association, Vol. 89, Iss. 427, 913-923. https://doi.org.10.2307/2290916
  • Jeanne, O. (1995). Monetary Policy in England 1893-1914: A Structural VAR Analysis. Explorations in Economic History, No. 32, 302-326. https://doi.org/10.1006/exeh.1995.1013
  • Kindleberger, C. (1984). A Financial History of Western Europe. London: George Allen & Unwin.
  • Kuttner, K. N. (2010). Victorian Financial Crises and Their Implications for the Future. Business Economics, Vol. 45, Iss. 2, 102-109. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/be.2010.5
  • Le Maux, L. (2018). The Bank of England, the Interest Rate, and the Bank Act of 1844. Revue Economique, Vol. 29, Iss. 4, 541-574. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02854521/document
  • Liu, J., Wu, S. and Zidek, J. V. (1997). On Segmented Multivariate Regression. Statistica Sinica, No. 7, 497-525. http://www3.stat.sinica.edu.tw/statistica/oldpdf/A7n213.pdf
  • Malik, F. (2003). Sudden Changes In Variance And Volatility Persistence In Foreign Exchange Markets. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, No. 13, 217-230. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1042-444X(02)00052-X
  • Marx, K. (2004). Kapital, Ekonomi Politiğin Eleştirisi (Haz. Friedrich Engels). Üçüncü Cilt, Üçüncü Kitap, Eriş Yayınları.
  • Quinn, S. (2001). Finance and Capital Markets. (Edited by Roderick Floud and D. N. McCloskey). The Economic History of Britain Since 1700, Volume 1, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Rodionov, S. N. (2016). A Comparison of Two Methods for Detecting Abrupt Changes in the Variance of Climatic Time Series. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 2, Iss. 1, 63-78. https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-63-2016
  • Sayani, H. (2011). Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets: A Study of Karachi Stock Exhange. The First International ERPBSS Conference, Vol.1, UAE: Middlesex University Dubai. https://www.academia.edu/14022028/VOLATILITY_IN_EMERGING_STOCK_MARKETS_A_Study_of_Karachi_Stock_Exchange
  • The Daily News, Wednesday October 28, 1863, www.newspaperarchive.com (17.08.2020).
  • Toma, M. (1999). A Positive Model of Reserve Requirements and Interest on Reserves: A Clearinghouse Interpretation of the Federal Reserve System. Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 66, Iss. 1, 101-116. https://doi.org/10.2307/1060837
  • Tooke, T. and Newmarch, W. (1857). A History of Prices, and of the State of Circulation During the Nine Years 1848 – 1856. History of Prices from 1792 to the Present Time, London: Book on Demand Ltd.
  • Viner, J. (1955). Studies in the Theory of International Trade. London: George Allen & Unwin Ltd.
  • Warren, H. (1906). The Story of the Bank of England. London: R. A. Everett & Son.
  • Whale, P. B. (1944). A Retrospective View of the Bank Charter Act of 1844. Economica, Vol. 11, Iss. 43, 109-111. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2550283

İngiltere Merkez Bankası Rezervlerinde Meydana Gelen Yapısal Değişimlerin Analizi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 4, 797 - 814, 30.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.896221

Öz

17. yüzyılın sonunda teşkil edilen Bank of England, modern bankacılığın önde gelen örneklerindendir. 19. yüzyılın ilk yarısında gerçekleşen ekonomik ve toplumsal çalkantılar ve savaşlar, Bankacılık ve Para okulları arasında BoE’nin öncelikli işlevinin ne olduğuna dair ciddi bir tartışma başlatmıştır. 1844 tarihli Bankacılık Yasası İngiliz ekonomisinde süregelen istikrarsızlığı ortadan kaldırmak amacıyla yürürlüğe konulmuştur. Yasa, 1847, 1856 ve 1866 yıllarında yaşanan gelişmelere bağlı olarak askıya alınmıştır. Bu çalışmada ekonomik ve ekonomi dışı gelişmelerin bankanın rezerleri üzerindeki etkileri 1844-1866 dönemi için yapısal kırılma testleri yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Serilerin ortalamalarında ve varyanslarında meydana gelen rejim değişikliklerinin tespit edilebilmesi amacıyla Bai-Perron testi ve ICSS algoritması kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, İngiltere’yi doğrudan etkileyen iç ve dış askeri, politik ve ekonomik gelişmelerin Bankanın rezervleri üzerindeki etkilerini ortaya koymaktadır
Anahtar Kelimeler: İngiltere Merkez Bankası, Yapısal Kırılmalar, 1844 Bankacılık Yasası
JEL Sınıflandırması: N23, E58, E52

Kaynakça

  • Allen, L. (2001). The Global Financial System: 1750-2000. London: Reaktion Books Publishing.
  • Andreades, A. M. (1909). History of the Bank of England, 1640 to 1903 (Translated by Christabel Margaret Meredith). London: P. S. King & Son.
  • Anno Septimo & Octavo (1844), Act to Regulate the Issue of Bank Notes, and for giving to the Governor and Company of Bank of England Certain Privileges for a Limited Period. Victoria Regina, 329-343. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Vict/7-8/32?view=plain
  • Anson, M., Bholat, D., Kang, M. and Ryland, T. (2017). The Bank of England as Lender of Last Resort: New Historical Evidence from Daily Transactional Data. Bank of England Working Paper No. 691, 1-80.
  • Antipa, P. and Chamley, C. (2017). Monetary and Fiscal Policy in England during the French Wars (1793-1821). Banque de France Working Papers. No. 627, 1-40. https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/627.html
  • Arnon, A. (2010). Monetary Theory and Policy from Hume and Smith to Wicksell. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bai, J. and Perron, P. (1998), Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes. Econometrica, Vol. 66, Iss. 1, 47-78. https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540
  • Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 18, Iss. 1, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659
  • Bjerkseth, O. S. (2006). Volatility on Oslo Stock Exchange: Structural Breakpoints in Volatility Using the ICSS Algorithm. (Master Thesis), Norges Handelshoykole, Financial Economics.
  • Bordo, M. D. and Eugene N. W. (1991). A Tale of Two Currencies: British and French Finance During the Napoleonic Wars. The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 51, Iss. 2, 303-316. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2122576?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents
  • Cook, C. (2005). Britain in the Nineteenth Century, 1815-1914. London: Routledge.
  • Davutyan, N. and Parke, W. R. (1995). The Operations of the Bank of England, 1890-1908: a Dynamic Probit Approach. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 27, Iss. 4, 1099-1112. https://doi.org/10.2307/2077792
  • De Kock, M. H. (1974). Central Banking. London: Crosby Lockwood Staples.
  • De Soto, J. H. (2006). Money, Bank Credit and Economic Cycles (Translated by Melinda A. Stroup). Alabama: Ludwig von Mises Institute.
  • Dornbusch, R. and Frenkel, J. A. (1984). The Gold Standard and the Bank of England in the Crisis of 1847. (Edited by Michael D. Bordo and Anna J. Schwartz). A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931. NBER, 233-276. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(84)90040-0
  • Dutton, J. (1984). The Bank of England and the Rules of the Game under the International Gold Standard: New Evidence. (Edited by Michael D. Bordo and Anna J. Schwart). A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931. NBER, 173-202. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11128/c11128.pdf
  • Eichengreen, B. (1992). Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Eltis, W. (2001). Lord Overstone and the Establishment of British Nineteenth-Century Monetary Orthodoxy. University of Oxford Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History, No. 42, 4-35. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/oxfesohwp/_5f042.htm
  • Esteve, V. and Requena, F. (2006). A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change. International Journal of the Economics of Business, Vol. 13, Iss. 1, 111-128. Doi: 10.1080/13571510500520036
  • Evans, D. M. (1859). The History of the Commercial Crisis, 1857-58 and the Stock Exchange Panic of 1859. London: Groombridge and Sons.
  • Francis, J. (1862). History of The Bank of England, Its Times and Tradition from 1694 to 1844. New York: Published at the Office of the Banker’s Magazine.
  • Goodhart, C. and Meinhard, J. (2015). Currency School versus Banking School: an Ongoing Confrontation. Economic Thought, Vol. 4, Iss. 2, 1-16. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/64068/1/Currency%20School%20versus%20Banking%20School.pdf
  • Güriş, S. and Çağlayan, E. (2000). Ekonometri, Temel Kavramlar. İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
  • Gürsakal, S. (2009). Varyans Kırılması Gözlemlenen Serilerde Garch Modelleri: Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, No. 32, 319-337. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/erciyesiibd/issue/5889/77913
  • Horsefield, J. K. (1944). The Origins of the Bank Charter Act, 1844. Economica, Vol. 11, Iss. 44, 180-189. https:/doi.org/10.2307/2549352
  • Hughes, J. R. T. (1967). Bank of England Reserve Policy. The Journal of Economic History, Vol. 27, Iss. 1, 92-93. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050700070728
  • Humphrey, M. T. and Keleher, R. E. (1984). The Lender of Last Resort, A Historical Perspective. Cato Journal, Vol. 4, Iss. 1, 275-321. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2120209
  • Inclan, C. and Tiao, G. C. (1994). Use of Cumulative Sums of Squares for Retrospective Detection of Changes of Variance. Journal of the Americal Statistical Association, Vol. 89, Iss. 427, 913-923. https://doi.org.10.2307/2290916
  • Jeanne, O. (1995). Monetary Policy in England 1893-1914: A Structural VAR Analysis. Explorations in Economic History, No. 32, 302-326. https://doi.org/10.1006/exeh.1995.1013
  • Kindleberger, C. (1984). A Financial History of Western Europe. London: George Allen & Unwin.
  • Kuttner, K. N. (2010). Victorian Financial Crises and Their Implications for the Future. Business Economics, Vol. 45, Iss. 2, 102-109. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/be.2010.5
  • Le Maux, L. (2018). The Bank of England, the Interest Rate, and the Bank Act of 1844. Revue Economique, Vol. 29, Iss. 4, 541-574. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02854521/document
  • Liu, J., Wu, S. and Zidek, J. V. (1997). On Segmented Multivariate Regression. Statistica Sinica, No. 7, 497-525. http://www3.stat.sinica.edu.tw/statistica/oldpdf/A7n213.pdf
  • Malik, F. (2003). Sudden Changes In Variance And Volatility Persistence In Foreign Exchange Markets. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, No. 13, 217-230. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1042-444X(02)00052-X
  • Marx, K. (2004). Kapital, Ekonomi Politiğin Eleştirisi (Haz. Friedrich Engels). Üçüncü Cilt, Üçüncü Kitap, Eriş Yayınları.
  • Quinn, S. (2001). Finance and Capital Markets. (Edited by Roderick Floud and D. N. McCloskey). The Economic History of Britain Since 1700, Volume 1, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Rodionov, S. N. (2016). A Comparison of Two Methods for Detecting Abrupt Changes in the Variance of Climatic Time Series. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 2, Iss. 1, 63-78. https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-63-2016
  • Sayani, H. (2011). Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets: A Study of Karachi Stock Exhange. The First International ERPBSS Conference, Vol.1, UAE: Middlesex University Dubai. https://www.academia.edu/14022028/VOLATILITY_IN_EMERGING_STOCK_MARKETS_A_Study_of_Karachi_Stock_Exchange
  • The Daily News, Wednesday October 28, 1863, www.newspaperarchive.com (17.08.2020).
  • Toma, M. (1999). A Positive Model of Reserve Requirements and Interest on Reserves: A Clearinghouse Interpretation of the Federal Reserve System. Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 66, Iss. 1, 101-116. https://doi.org/10.2307/1060837
  • Tooke, T. and Newmarch, W. (1857). A History of Prices, and of the State of Circulation During the Nine Years 1848 – 1856. History of Prices from 1792 to the Present Time, London: Book on Demand Ltd.
  • Viner, J. (1955). Studies in the Theory of International Trade. London: George Allen & Unwin Ltd.
  • Warren, H. (1906). The Story of the Bank of England. London: R. A. Everett & Son.
  • Whale, P. B. (1944). A Retrospective View of the Bank Charter Act of 1844. Economica, Vol. 11, Iss. 43, 109-111. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2550283
Toplam 44 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mehmet Çetin 0000-0002-6954-0908

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 28 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Çetin, M. (2021). The Analysis of Structural Changes in the Reserves of the Bank of England. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 28(4), 797-814. https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.896221