Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions

Mehmet Kocabıyık

doi:10.31466/kfbd.1812331

TR EN

Ekonomik ve Endüstriyel CO₂ Emisyonları İçin Gri Sistem Tahminine Fraktal Dinamiklerin Entegrasyonu

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 2010-2022 yılları arasında Türkiye'deki karbondioksit emisyonunun üç göstergesine (birim CO₂ emisyonu başına katma değer, yanma kaynaklı CO₂ emisyonları ve imalat kaynaklı CO₂ emisyonu başına imalat katma değeri) ilişkin gri sistem analizi yapılmıştır. Geleneksel gri ve ayrık gri modeller ile doğrusal olmayan dinamikleri uygulamayı amaçlayan fraktal gri model, tahminleme yapmak için kullanılmıştır. Bu modeller, eğitim ve test aşamalarında ortalama mutlak hata, kök ortalama kare hata ve ortalama mutlak yüzde hata temelinde değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, fraktal modelin geleneksel modellere kıyasla hata ölçütlerine daha az eğilimli olduğunu, dolayısıyla emisyon karmaşıklıklarını yakalama yeteneğinin geliştiğini ve fraktal dinamiklerin karbon yoğunluğunun kısa vadeli tahminlerinde etkili olabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu yöntem, ekonomik büyüme ile çevre üzerindeki etki arasındaki ilişkiyi izlemeye yardımcı olmak için çevre politikası ve sanayi planlamasında etkili bir araç olabilir.

Keywords

Gri sistemler, Fraktal model, CO₂ emisyon tahmini, Hata azaltma, Sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleri

Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions

Abstract

The grey system analysis of the three indicators of carbon dioxide emission in Türkiye during 2010-2022 in this paper includes: value added per unit CO₂ emission, combustion-related CO₂ emissions, and manufacturing value added per manufacturing CO₂ emission. The traditional grey and discrete grey models, and a fractal grey model, which aims at implementing nonlinear dynamics, are used to conduct forecasting. These models have been assessed based on the mean absolute error, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error at the training and testing stages. Findings indicate that, the fractal model is less prone to error measures compared to the traditional models thus signifying an improved ability of the model to capture the emission complexities, and fractal dynamics can be effective in short-term predictions of carbon intensity. This method can be an effective instrument in the environmental policy and industrial planning to assist in tracking the correlation between economic growth and the impact on the environment.

Keywords

Grey systems, Fractal model, CO₂ emission forecasting, Error reduction, Sustainable development goals

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Environmental Pollution and Prevention, Air Pollution Modelling and Control, Environmental and Sustainable Processes

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mehmet Kocabıyık ^*
0000-0002-7701-6946
Türkiye

Publication Date

June 10, 2026

Submission Date

October 28, 2025

Acceptance Date

April 24, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 16 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1812331

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA37HA99ZF

APA

Kocabıyık, M. (2026). Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 16(2), 951-971. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1812331

AMA

1.Kocabıyık M. Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. KFBD. 2026;16(2):951-971. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1812331

Chicago

Kocabıyık, Mehmet. 2026. “Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 16 (2): 951-71. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1812331.

EndNote

Kocabıyık M (June 1, 2026) Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 16 2 951–971.

IEEE

[1]M. Kocabıyık, “Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions”, KFBD, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 951–971, June 2026, doi: 10.31466/kfbd.1812331.

ISNAD

Kocabıyık, Mehmet. “Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 16/2 (June 1, 2026): 951-971. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1812331.

JAMA

1.Kocabıyık M. Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. KFBD. 2026;16:951–971.

MLA

Kocabıyık, Mehmet. “Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 16, no. 2, June 2026, pp. 951-7, doi:10.31466/kfbd.1812331.

Vancouver

1.Mehmet Kocabıyık. Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. KFBD. 2026 Jun. 1;16(2):951-7. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1812331

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Ekonomik ve Endüstriyel CO₂ Emisyonları İçin Gri Sistem Tahminine Fraktal Dinamiklerin Entegrasyonu

Abstract

Keywords

Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions

Abstract

Keywords

References

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