Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions

Mehmet Kocabıyık

doi:10.31466/kfbd.1812331

TR EN

Ekonomik ve Endüstriyel CO₂ Emisyonları İçin Gri Sistem Tahminine Fraktal Dinamiklerin Entegrasyonu

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 2010-2022 yılları arasında Türkiye'deki karbondioksit emisyonunun üç göstergesine (birim CO₂ emisyonu başına katma değer, yanma kaynaklı CO₂ emisyonları ve imalat kaynaklı CO₂ emisyonu başına imalat katma değeri) ilişkin gri sistem analizi yapılmıştır. Geleneksel gri ve ayrık gri modeller ile doğrusal olmayan dinamikleri uygulamayı amaçlayan fraktal gri model, tahminleme yapmak için kullanılmıştır. Bu modeller, eğitim ve test aşamalarında ortalama mutlak hata, kök ortalama kare hata ve ortalama mutlak yüzde hata temelinde değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular, fraktal modelin geleneksel modellere kıyasla hata ölçütlerine daha az eğilimli olduğunu, dolayısıyla emisyon karmaşıklıklarını yakalama yeteneğinin geliştiğini ve fraktal dinamiklerin karbon yoğunluğunun kısa vadeli tahminlerinde etkili olabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu yöntem, ekonomik büyüme ile çevre üzerindeki etki arasındaki ilişkiyi izlemeye yardımcı olmak için çevre politikası ve sanayi planlamasında etkili bir araç olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gri sistemler, Fraktal model, CO₂ emisyon tahmini, Hata azaltma, Sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefleri

Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions

Öz

The grey system analysis of the three indicators of carbon dioxide emission in Türkiye during 2010-2022 in this paper includes: value added per unit CO₂ emission, combustion-related CO₂ emissions, and manufacturing value added per manufacturing CO₂ emission. The traditional grey and discrete grey models, and a fractal grey model, which aims at implementing nonlinear dynamics, are used to conduct forecasting. These models have been assessed based on the mean absolute error, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error at the training and testing stages. Findings indicate that, the fractal model is less prone to error measures compared to the traditional models thus signifying an improved ability of the model to capture the emission complexities, and fractal dynamics can be effective in short-term predictions of carbon intensity. This method can be an effective instrument in the environmental policy and industrial planning to assist in tracking the correlation between economic growth and the impact on the environment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Grey systems, Fractal model, CO₂ emission forecasting, Error reduction, Sustainable development goals

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Çevre Kirliliği ve Önlenmesi, Hava Kirliliği Modellemesi ve Kontrolü, Çevresel ve Sürdürülebilir Süreçler

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Mehmet Kocabıyık ^*
0000-0002-7701-6946
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

10 Haziran 2026

Gönderilme Tarihi

28 Ekim 2025

Kabul Tarihi

24 Nisan 2026

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2026 Cilt: 16 Sayı: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1812331

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA37HA99ZF

APA

Kocabıyık, M. (2026). Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 16(2), 951-971. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1812331

AMA

1.Kocabıyık M. Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. KFBD. 2026;16(2):951-971. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1812331

Chicago

Kocabıyık, Mehmet. 2026. “Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 16 (2): 951-71. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1812331.

EndNote

Kocabıyık M (01 Haziran 2026) Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 16 2 951–971.

IEEE

[1]M. Kocabıyık, “Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions”, KFBD, c. 16, sy 2, ss. 951–971, Haz. 2026, doi: 10.31466/kfbd.1812331.

ISNAD

Kocabıyık, Mehmet. “Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 16/2 (01 Haziran 2026): 951-971. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1812331.

JAMA

1.Kocabıyık M. Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. KFBD. 2026;16:951–971.

MLA

Kocabıyık, Mehmet. “Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, c. 16, sy 2, Haziran 2026, ss. 951-7, doi:10.31466/kfbd.1812331.

Vancouver

1.Mehmet Kocabıyık. Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions. KFBD. 01 Haziran 2026;16(2):951-7. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1812331

Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisinde yayınlanan makaleler Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International kapsamında lisanslanmıştır.

Ekonomik ve Endüstriyel CO₂ Emisyonları İçin Gri Sistem Tahminine Fraktal Dinamiklerin Entegrasyonu

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Integrating Fractal Dynamics into Grey System Forecasting for Economic and Industrial CO₂ Emissions

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

Kaynak Göster