Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için panel veri analizi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 3, 240 - 255, 30.11.2025

Berat Harman

https://doi.org/10.58308/bemarej.1767820

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 7 gelişmekte olan ülkenin (Brezilya, Endonezya, Hindistan, Malezya, Meksika, Polonya ve Türkiye) 1990–2024 dönemi verileri kullanılarak doğrudan yabancı yatırımlarının (DYY) ve sabit sermaye yatırımlarının (SSY) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi panel veri yöntemleriyle incelenmiştir. Çalışmada yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan Ortalama Grup (CCEMG) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Genel panel veri bulguları, DYY’nin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ancak istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte SSY pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. Birimlere göre sonuçlarda ise, DYY’nin ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif etkilediği ülkeler Brezilya ve Meksika olarak tespit edilmiştir. Malezya‘da ise negatif etkilediğine ilişkin bulgulara ulaşılmıştır. SSY ekonomik büyümeyi Hindistan dışındaki 6 ülkede pozitif etkilemiştir. Ayrıca heterojen yapıyı dikkate alan Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel nedensellik analizi sonucunda, büyüme ile DYY arasında çift yönlü ancak sınırlı bir nedensel ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrudan yabancı yatırım , Ekonomik büyüme , Gelişmekte olan ülkeler , Heterojen panel , Panel veri

The impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth: A panel data analysis for developing countries

Öz

This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and fixed capital investment (FCI) on economic growth using panel data methods, based on data from seven developing countries (Brazil, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, and Türkiye) for the period 1990–2024. The study employed the cross-section by Equilibrium Model (CCEMG) estimator, which accounts for cross-sectional dependence. The general panel data findings indicate that FDI has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth. However, FCI was found to be positive and statistically significant. In terms of country-specific results, FCI was found to positively affect economic growth in Brazil and Mexico. Findings indicate that it was determined that FDI positively affected economic growth in all countries, excluding India. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality analysis, which takes into account the heterogeneous structure, found a bidirectional but limited causal relationship between growth and investment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Developing countries , Economic growth , Foreign direct investment , Heterogeneous panel , Panel data

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. Crown Business.
• Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1992). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351.
• Albuquerque, R. (2003). The composition of international capital flows: Risk sharing through foreign direct investment. Journal of International Economics, 61(2), 353–383.
• Alfaro, L., Chanda, A., Kalemli-Ozcan, S., & Sayek, S. (2004). FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets. Journal of International Economics, 64(1), 89–112.
• Asiedu, E. (2002). On the determinants of foreign direct investment to developing countries: Is Africa different?. World Development, 30(1), 107–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(01)00100-0
• Awaluddin, I., Sitorus, N. H., Hamzah, L. M., & Fajarini, D. (2023). Foreign Investment And Economic Growth In Indonesia (Panel Data Approach, Granger Causality And VECM). Journal of Namibian Studies: History, Politics, Culture, 36, 1009–1032.
• Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic growth (2nd ed.). MIT Press.
• Bayar, Y. (2014). Effects of economic growth, export and foreign direct investment inflows on unemployment in Turkey. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 11(2), 20-27.
• Blomström, M., & Kokko, A. (1998). Multinational corporations and spillovers. Journal of Economic Surveys, 12(3), 247–277. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00056
• Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00033-0
• Carkovic, M., & Levine, R. (2005). Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate Economic Growth? In T. H. Moran, E. M. Graham & M. Blomström (Eds.), Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development? (pp. 195–220). Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
• Çeştepe, H., Yıldırım, E., & Bayar, M. (2013). Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım, Ekonomik Büyüme Ve Dış Ticaret: Toda-Yamamoto Yaklaşımıyla Türkiye’den Nedensellik Kanıtlar. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 13(27), 1-37.
• De Mello, L. R. (1997). Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey. Journal of Development Studies, 34(1), 1‑34. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389708422501
• Demirhan, E., & Masca, M. (2008). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries: A Cross‑Sectional Analysis. Prague Economic Papers, 17(4), 356–369. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.337.
• Dereli, D. D. (2018). Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme: Türkiye (1995-2017). Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 19(2), 145-156.
• Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
• Effendi, N., & Soemantri, M. H. (2003). Foreign direct investment and regional economic growth in Indonesia: A panel data study. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 20(3), 302–315. https://doi.org/10.1355/AE20-3G.
• Fazaalloh, A. (2019). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Indonesia: A causality analysis. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 12(2), 120–132.
• Fazaalloh, A. (2024). FDI and economic growth in Indonesia: A provincial and sectoral analysis. Journal of Economic Structures, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-023-00323-w
• Furmolly, A. (2024). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in India: Empirical evidence from 1970 to 2013. International Journal of Multicultural and Multireligious Understanding (IJMMU), 11(2), 222–236. https://doi.org/10.18415/ijmmu.v11i2.6996
• Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. MIT Press.
• Herzer, D., Klasen, S., & Nowak-Lehmann, F. (2008). In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward. Economic Modelling, 25(5), 793–810. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.11.005
• Kaur, M., Yadav, S., & Gautam, V. (2013). Causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in India. International Journal of Business and Emerging Markets, 5(1), 70–84. https://doi.org/10.1108/14770021311312502
• Kaya, A., & Kahreman, Y. (2017). Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi. Erzurum Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2(4), 25-39.
• Kumari, P., Sharma, S., & Arora, A. (2023). Revisiting the relationship between FDI, trade openness and economic growth: Empirical evidence from India. South Asian Journal of Business Studies, 13(1), 102–118. https://doi.org/10.1108/SAJBS-06-2020-0199
• Li, X., & Liu, X. (2005). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: An increasingly endogenous relationship. World Development, 33(3), 393–407.
• Lucas, R. E. Jr. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
• Moura, R., & Forte, R. (2013). The effects of foreign direct investment on the host country economic growth – theory and empirical evidence. The Singapore Economic Review, 58(3), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590813500173
• Nadar, E. (2021). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: A VECM approach for India (1970–2019). MPRA Paper No. 106826. University of Munich. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/106826/
• Narayanamoorthy, V., Perumal, S., & Rao, K. (2008). Causal relationship between foreign direct investment and growth: Evidence from BRICS countries. International Business Research, 2(4). https://doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v2n4p198
• North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2006). Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogenous Panels with Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrica, 74, 967-1012.
• Ridha, M. R., & Parwanto, N. B. (2020). The effect of foreign direct investment, human development and macroeconomic condition on economic growth: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Indonesian Applied Economics, 8(2), 46-54.
• Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131–165. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOEG.0000031425.72248.85
• Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002–1037. https://doi.org/10.1086/261420
• Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71–S102.
• Setiyanto, R. H., & Fitrady, H. (2024). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Indonesia: Role of human capital and trade openness. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 17(1), 20–35. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v17i1.5581
• Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
• Swamy, P. A. V. B. (1971). Statistical Inference in Random Coefficient Regression Models. Springer.
• Taşçı, H., & Okuyan, H. A. (2016). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların sektörel dağılımı ve ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Finans, Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 53(614), 33–52.
• Taylor, M. P., & Sarno, L. (1998). The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period. Journal of International Economics, 46(2), 281–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(97)00054-9
• Taymaz, E., & Yilmaz, K. (2008). Foreign direct investment and productivity spillovers: Identifying linkages through product-based measures.
• Teixeira, A. A., & Guimarães, L. (2015). Corruption and FDI: does the use of distinct proxies for corruption matter?. Journal of African Business, 16(1-2), 159-179.
• UNCTAD. (2023). World Investment Report 2023: Investing in Sustainable Energy for All. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. https://unctad.org/wir
• Wahyudi, S. T. (2009). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Indonesia, 1980–2004: A Causality Approach. Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business, 19(1), 67–84.
• Worldbank (2025). World Bank Statistical Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/indicator/ NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/1ff4a498/Popular-Indicators.
• Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). İleri panel veri analizi Stata uygulamalı. (Düzenlenmiş ve Yenilenmiş 3. Baskı). Beta Basım Yayın Dağıtım.