THE PREDICTABILITY OF SILICON VALLEY BANK'S BANKRUPTCY: AN ANALYSIS USING THE CAMELS RATING SYSTEM

Öz

The bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank marked a critical turning point in global financial markets, exposing vulnerabilities in the US banking sector. This study investigates the causes of Silicon Valley Bank's failure and aims to propose early warning policies for bank failures. Using annual reports from the last four periods before to Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy, financial ratios based on the CAMELS rating system were computed and compared with averages for the US banking sector. The findings reveal significant weaknesses in capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, profitability, and liquidity. Inadequate risk management in a rising interest rate environment, combined with a business model highly sensitive to economic fluctuations, played a decisive role in the bank's failure. The results highlight the need for stronger liquidity management, more robust risk assessment methods and diversified sectoral exposure, as well as the development of effective early warning mechanisms to mitigate the effects of interest rate volatility and sector-specific shocks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Silicon valley bank collapse
• Bankruptcy
• Early warning system
• CAMELS rating system

SİLİKON VADİSİ BANKASI'NIN İFLASININ ÖNGÖRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: CAMELS DERECELENDİRME SİSTEMİ İLE ANALİZİ

Öz

Silikon Vadisi Bankası'nın iflası, ABD bankacılık sektöründeki kırılganlıkları ortaya çıkararak küresel finans piyasalarında kritik bir dönüm noktası oluşturmuştur. Bu çalışma, Silikon Vadisi Bankası'nın iflasının nedenlerini araştırmakta ve banka iflasları için erken uyarı politikaları önermeyi amaçlamaktadır. Silikon Vadisi Bankası’nın iflasından önceki son dört döneme ait yıllık raporları kullanılarak CAMELS derecelendirme yöntemine dayalı finansal oranlar hesaplanmış ve ABD bankacılık sektörü ortalamalarıyla karşılaştırılmıştır. Bulgular, sermaye yeterliliği, varlık kalitesi, yönetim verimliliği, karlılık ve likiditede önemli zayıflıkları ortaya koymaktadır. Yükselen faiz oranları ortamında yetersiz risk yönetimi, ekonomik dalgalanmalara son derece duyarlı bir iş modeliyle birleşerek bankanın başarısızlığında belirleyici rol oynamıştır. Sonuçlar, faiz oranı oynaklığının ve sektöre özgü şokların etkilerini azaltmak için daha güçlü likidite yönetimine, daha sağlam risk değerlendirme yöntemlerine ve çeşitlendirilmiş sektörel dağılıma, ayrıca etkili erken uyarı mekanizmalarının geliştirilmesine duyulan ihtiyacı vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Silikon vadisi bankası çöküşü
• İflas
• Erken uyarı sistemi
• CAMELS derecelendirme yöntemi

Kaynakça

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