RÜZGÂR HIZI VE BORSA GETİRİLERİ ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK İLİŞKİNİN ARAŞTIRILMASI: BORSA İSTANBUL'DAN KANITLAR

Öz

Davranışsal finansın temel yaklaşımı, yatırımcı kararlarında psikolojik faktörlerin etkisini ortaya koymaktır. Bu doğrultuda, meteorolojik olayların insan davranışları üzerindeki etkisi farklı disiplinlerce incelenmiş ve birçok kültürel inanışta da önemli bir yer edinmiştir. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, 2005-2020 döneminde Borsa İstanbul için rüzgâr hızı ile borsa getirileri arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi mevsimleri de dikkate alarak incelemektir. Bu amaçla zamanla değişen simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri kullanılmıştır. Zamanla değişen simetrik nedensellik testinin bulguları özellikle 2005-2006 ve 2011-2012 dönemlerinde baskın nedensel ilişkiler olduğunu göstermektedir. Zamanla değişen asimetrik nedensellik testinin bulguları ise pozitif rüzgâr şoklarının sonbahar ve kış aylarında getirilerde azalmaya, negatif rüzgâr şoklarının ise kış aylarında artışa neden olabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, hava koşullarının finansal piyasalarda kısa vadeli dalgalanmalara yol açabileceğini ima etmektedir. Bu nedenle politika yapıcıların, hava kaynaklı değişimleri dikkate alarak piyasa istikrarını artıracak önlemler geliştirmeleri önemlidir. Yatırımcılar ise, mevsimsel ve meteorolojik faktörleri yatırım stratejilerine entegre ederek daha bilinçli kararlar alabilirler. Bu yönüyle çalışma, rüzgâr hızı ile borsa getirileri arasındaki dinamik ilişkiyi mevsimsel etkileri de dikkate alarak inceleyen öncü çalışmalardandır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hisse Senedi Getirileri
• Meteoroloji
• Rüzgâr Hızı
• Zamanla Değişen Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik

INVESTIGATING THE DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WIND SPEED AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM BORSA ISTANBUL

Öz

The main approach of behavioral finance is to highlight the influence of psychological factors on investors’ decisions. In this direction, the effects of meteorological events on human behavior have been examined across various disciplines and also hold a significant place in many cultural belief systems. This study investigates the causal relationship between wind speed and stock market returns in Borsa Istanbul from 2005 to 2020, taking seasonal variation into account. To achieve this, time-varying symmetric and asymmetric causality tests were employed. The findings of the time-varying symmetric causality test reveal significant causal relationships, particularly during the 2005–2006 and 2011–2012 periods. The asymmetric test results suggest that positive wind shocks may reduce returns in autumn and winter seasons, while negative wind shocks may cause an increase in returns during the winter months. These results indicate that weather conditions may contribute to short-term fluctuations in financial markets. Therefore, it is important for policymakers to develop measures aimed at enhancing market stability by taking weather-induced changes into consideration. Investors, on the other hand, may make more informed decisions by integrating seasonal and meteorological factors into their investment strategies. In this regard, the study is among the pioneering works that examine the dynamic relationship between wind speed and stock market returns while accounting for seasonal effects.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Stock Returns
• Meteorology
• Wind Speed
• Time Varying Symmetric and Asymmetric causality

Kaynakça

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