DO GOOGLE SEARCHES AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET? A STUDY ON BIST100 INDEX

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between Google searches related to keywords that may be associated with the stock market in Türkiye and the returns of the BIST100 index. Using weekly data covering the period from 27 October 2019 to 20 October 2024, Google search volumes for the keywords “gold”, “stock market”, “Borsa Istanbul”, “bitcoin”, “dollar”, and “stock” were analyzed together with BIST100 index returns. Due to the presence of non-normality and heteroskedasticity in the error terms, the robust least squares method was employed. The findings indicate that there are statistically significant relationships between some search terms and BIST100 returns. In particular, searches for “stock market” and “Borsa Istanbul” are negatively associated with returns, whereas searches for “dollar” and “stock” exhibit a positive association. In contrast, the coefficients of “gold” and “bitcoin” are not statistically significant. Overall, the results suggest that Google search data may serve as complementary indicators reflecting investor attention in financial market analyses.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Google Trends
• İstanbul Stock Exchange
• Robust Regression Analysis

GOOGLE ARAMALARI HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASINI ETKİLİYOR MU? BİST100 ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de hisse senedi piyasasıyla ilişkili olabilecek anahtar kelimelere yönelik Google aramalarının, BİST100 endeksi getirileriyle olan ilişkisini incelemektir. Bu kapsamda 27.10.2019–20.10.2024 dönemine ait haftalık veriler kullanılarak “altın”, “borsa”, “borsa İstanbul”, “bitcoin”, “dolar” ve “hisse senedi” anahtar kelimelerine ilişkin Google arama hacimleri ile BİST100 endeksi getirileri analiz edilmiştir. Analizde, hata terimlerinde normallik ve değişen varyans sorunlarının bulunması nedeniyle robust en küçük kareler yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, bazı arama terimleri ile BİST100 getirileri arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ilişkiler bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre “borsa” ve “borsa İstanbul” aramaları ile BİST100 getirileri arasında negatif yönlü, “dolar” ve “hisse senedi” aramaları ile ise pozitif yönlü ilişkiler tespit edilmiştir. Buna karşılık “altın” ve “bitcoin” aramalarına ilişkin katsayılar istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Bulgular, Google arama verilerinin yatırımcı ilgisini yansıtan tamamlayıcı göstergeler olarak finansal piyasa analizlerinde kullanılabileceğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Google Trends
• Borsa İstanbul
• Robust Regresyon Analizi

Kaynakça

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