ÇEVRESEL PHİLLİPS EĞRİSİ HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİNİN ANALİZİ: CIVETS ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, CIVETS ülkeleri (Kolombiya, Endonezya, Vietnam, Mısır, Türkiye ve Güney Afrika) için 1991-2022 döneminde çevresel Phillips eğrisinin geçerliliğini incelemektedir. Ekolojik ayak izi bağımlı değişken, işsizlik oranı temel açıklayıcı değişken, ekonomik büyüme ve yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ise kontrol değişkenleri olarak modele dâhil edilmiştir. Uzun dönem analizinde panel DOLSMG yöntemi uygulanmış, nedensellik ilişkilerinin belirlenmesinde Canning ve Pedroni (2008) panel nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, ekonomik büyümenin ekolojik ayak izi üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkisi olduğunu, yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin ise ekolojik ayak izini azalttığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca işsizlik oranının ekolojik ayak izi üzerindeki düşürücü etkisi, ekonomik durgunluk dönemlerinde çevresel baskının azaldığını ortaya koymaktadır. Çevresel Phillips eğrisi Kolombiya, Vietnam, Türkiye, Güney Afrika ve panel geneli için geçerli, Endonezya ve Mısır için geçerli bulunmamıştır. Nedensellik analizine göre, işsizlik ile yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve ekolojik ayak izi arasında çift yönlü; ekonomik büyümeden ekolojik ayak izi, yenilenebilir enerji ve işsizliğe tek yönlü; ekolojik ayak izinden yenilenebilir enerjiye ise tek yönlü nedensellik mevcuttur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çevresel Phillips Eğrisi
• Ekolojik Ayak İzi
• CIVETS

ANALYSIS OF THE VALIDITY OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL PHILLIPS CURVE HYPOTHESIS: THE CASE OF CIVETS COUNTRIES

Öz

This study examines the validity of the environmental Phillips curve for CIVETS countries (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Türkiye, and South Africa) during the period 1991-2022. The ecological footprint is the dependent variable, the unemployment rate is the primary explanatory variable, and economic growth and renewable energy consumption are included as control variables in the model. The panel DOLSMG method was applied in the long-term analysis, and the Canning and Pedroni (2008) panel causality test was used to determine causal relationships. The findings show that economic growth has a positive and significant effect on the ecological footprint, while renewable energy consumption reduces the ecological footprint. Furthermore, the reducing effect of the unemployment rate on the ecological footprint reveals that environmental pressure decreases during periods of economic recession. The environmental Phillips curve is valid for Colombia, Vietnam, Türkiye, South Africa, and the panel as a whole, but not for Indonesia and Egypt. According to the causality analysis, there is a bidirectional causality between unemployment and renewable energy consumption and ecological footprint; a unidirectional causality from economic growth to ecological footprint, renewable energy, and unemployment; and a unidirectional causality from ecological footprint to renewable energy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Environmental Phillips Curve
• Ecological Footprint
• CIVETS

Kaynakça

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