ENERJİ MALİYET ARTIŞLARI KARŞISINDA TÜRKİYE’DE ÜCRET STRATEJİLERİ VE İŞ GÜVENCESİ MÜZAKERELERİ: ÇOK YÖNTEMLİ NİTEL BİR ÇALIŞMA

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de son dönem enerji maliyeti artışları sırasında ücret ve istihdam pazarlıklarının nasıl şekillendiğini ve bunun enflasyon açısından ne anlama geldiğini incelemektedir. Toplu sözleşmelerin belge analizi, sendika ve işveren temsilcileriyle yapılan odak grup görüşmeleri ve küçük ölçekli müzakere canlandırmaları birlikte kullanılmaktadır. Bulgular, pazarlıkların çoğunlukla işçilerin “adil pay” talebi ile işverenlerin “maliyet baskısı/rekabetçilik” kaygısı arasında geçtiğini göstermektedir. Farklı belirsizlik türlerinde, taraflar yüksekten açılış, kademeli zamlar, tek seferlik ödemeler ve kısmi endeksleme gibi taktikleri bir araya getirerek tekrar eden birkaç temel anlaşma paketi oluşturmaktadır. Enerji yoğun sektörlerde rekabetçilik ve tavan–tabanlı endeksleme daha öne çıkarken, hizmetlerde iş güvencesi ve işten çıkarma yasağına bağlı tek seferlik ödemeler daha görünür durumdadır. Sonuçlar, geniş kapsamlı endekslemenin enflasyonun kalıcılığını artırabileceğini, buna karşılık kademeli artışlar ve toplu ödemelerin alım gücünü korurken kalıcılığı sınırlamaya yardımcı olabileceğini düşündürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji maliyeti şokları
• Toplu pazarlık
• Ücret endekslemesi
• Enflasyon kalıcılığı

WAGE STRATEGIES AND EMPLOYMENT SECURITY BARGAINING IN TURKIYE UNDER ENERGY COST SURGES: A MULTI-METHOD QUALITATIVE STUDY

Öz

This study examines how wage and employment bargaining in Türkiye has changed amid recent increases in energy costs and what this means for inflation. Using a mix of methods—document analysis of collective agreements, focus groups with union and employer representatives, and small-scale negotiation simulations—it shows that negotiations centre on a tension between “fair share” for workers and “cost pressure/competitiveness” for firms. Under different types of uncertainty, actors combine tactics such as high opening offers, staged raises, one-off payments, and partial indexation into a small set of recurring agreement packages. In energy-intensive sectors, competitiveness and capped indexation are more common, while in services job security and one-off payments linked to no-layoff pledges are more visible. The results suggest that broad indexation can make inflation more persistent, whereas staggered increases and lump-sum payments help protect purchasing power without locking in permanently higher wage levels.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Energy cost shocks
• collective bargaining
• wage indexation
• inflation persistence

Kaynakça

1. Adolfsen, J. F., Minesso, M. F., Mork, J. E., & Van Robays, I. (2024). Gas price shocks and euro area inflation. Journal of International Money and Finance, 149, 103183.
2. Auclert, A., Monnery, H., Rognlie, M., & Straub, L. (2023). Managing an energy shock: Fiscal and monetary policy (Working Paper No. 31543). National Bureau of Economic Research.
3. Bates, C., Bodnár, K., Healy, P., & Roca I Llevadot, M. (2025). Wage developments during and after the high inflation period. Economic Bulletin Articles, 1.
4. Beschin, A., Paredes, J., Polichetti, G., & Renault, T. (2025). The slope of the euro area price Phillips curve: Evidence from regional data (Working Paper Series No. 3133). European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3133~aae3caa18c.en.pdf
5. Bobasu, A., Dobrew, M., & Repele, A. (2025). Energy price shocks, monetary policy and inequality. European Economic Review, 175, 104986.
6. Bonam, D., & Franz, W. (2021). The slope of the Phillips curve: Evidence from U.S. meta-data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 83(5), 1088–1120.
7. Budrys, Ž., Porqueddu, M., & Sokol, A. (2021). Striking a bargain: Narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks (Working Paper Series No. 2602). European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp2602~518cecab55.en.pdf
8. Budrys, Ž., Porqueddu, M., & Sokol, A. (2022, August 13). Striking a bargain: Narrative identification of wage bargaining shocks. VoxEU. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/striking-bargain-narrative-identification-wage-bargaining-shocks

9. Carlin, W., & Soskice, D. (2015). Macroeconomics: Institutions, instability, and the financial system. Oxford University Press.
10. Dokas, I., Oikonomou, G., Panagiotidis, M., & Spyromitros, E. (2023). Macroeconomic and uncertainty shocks’ effects on energy prices: A comprehensive literature review. Energies, 16(3), 1491.
11. Esmaeili, P., Rafei, M., Salari, M., & Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2024). From oil surges to renewable shifts: Unveiling the dynamic impact of supply and demand shocks in global crude oil market on US clean energy trends. Energy Policy, 192, 114252.
12. Eurofound. (2023). Tackling rising inflation in sectoral collective wage bargaining. Publications Office of the European Union. https://assets.eurofound.europa.eu/f/279033/9634061fba/ef23005en.pdf
13. European Central Bank. (2026). The pass-through to inflation of gas price shocks (Working Paper No. 2968). https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2968~e514c92723.en.pdf
14. Feeny, S., Trinh, T. A., & Zhu, A. (2021). Temperature shocks and energy poverty: Findings from Vietnam. Energy Economics, 99, 105310.
15. Garnero, A. (2021). The impact of collective bargaining on employment and wage inequality: Evidence from a new taxonomy of bargaining systems. European Journal of Industrial Relations, 27(2), 185–202.
16. Guinea, L., Puch, L. A., & Ruiz, J. (2024). Energy news shocks and their propagation to renewable and fossil fuels use. Energy Economics, 130, 107289.
17. Hansen, M. N. J. H., Hansen, N. J., Toscani, F., Toscani, M. F. G., & Zhou, J. (2023). Euro area inflation after the pandemic and energy shock: Import prices, profits and wages. International Monetary Fund.
18. International Labour Organization. (2024, May 17). How has wage bargaining responded to the acceleration of inflation? https://www.ilo.org/publications/how-has-wage-bargaining-responded-acceleration-inflation International Labour Organization. (n.d.). ILOSTAT country profile: Türkiye. https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/country-profiles/tur/
19. Layard, R., Nickell, S., & Jackman, R. (1991). Unemployment: Macroeconomic performance and the labour market. Oxford University Press.
20. Lu, S., Coutts, K., & Gudgin, G. (2024). Energy shocks and inflation episodes in the UK. Energy Economics, 129, 107208.
21. López, L., Odendahl, F., Rodríguez, S. P., & Silgado-Gómez, E. (2025). The pass-through to inflation of gas price shocks. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 105218.
22. Ministry of Labour and Social Security. (2025). Labour life statistics e-bulletin (April 2025). https://www.csgb.gov.tr/Media/gkwp1bbl/labour-life-statistics-2025-april-e-bulletin.pdf
23. Murshed, M., & Tanha, M. M. (2021). Oil price shocks and renewable energy transition: Empirical evidence from net oil-importing South Asian economies. Energy, Ecology and Environment, 6(3), 183–203.
24. OECD. (2019). Negotiating our way up: Collective bargaining in a changing world of work. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/1fd2da34-en
25. OECD. (2025a). Türkiye: Main indicators and characteristics of collective bargaining. https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2024/10/main-indicators-and-characteristics-of-collective-bargaining-2021-country-notes_4b5553c9/turkiye_5fb11493/28e3fe22-en.pdf
26. OECD. (2025b). OECD economic surveys: Türkiye 2025. OECD Publishing. https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/04/oecd-economic-surveys-turkiye-2025_fa62886d/d01c660f-en.pdf
27. Usman, O., Ozkan, O., Koy, A., & Adebayo, T. S. (2024). Energy-related uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the US: A multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression approach. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 71, 235–247.
28. Vandekerckhove, S., & Lenaerts, K. (2023). Collective bargaining in Western Continental Europe: Cluster report (BFORE Deliverable 4.1, pp. 1–24).
29. Wang, S., Du, A. M., & Lin, B. (2025). Market mechanisms for energy transition: Fossil energy price shocks and irrational renewable energy financing. Journal of International Money and Finance, 151, 103251.