Akademik Öz-Yeterlik ile İşsizlik Kaygısı Arasındaki İlişkide İyimserliğin Düzenleyici Rolü: Açıklanabilir Yapay Zekâ Yaklaşımı

Öz

Üniversite mezunlarının sayısındaki artış ve sınırlı istihdam olanakları, öğrencilerin gelecekteki istihdama ilişkin kaygılarını artırmaktadır. Bu çalışma, akademik öz-yeterlik ile işsizlik kaygısının karamsarlık ve özgüven eksikliği boyutu arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemiş ve iyimserliğin bu ilişkide düzenleyici bir rol oynayıp oynamadığını test etmiştir. Araştırmanın örneklemini, kolayda örnekleme yöntemiyle seçilen Isparta Uygulamalı Bilimler Üniversitesi’nde öğrenim gören 447 öğrenci oluşturmuştur. Düzenleyici etki modelini test etmek amacıyla tanımlayıcı istatistikler, açımlayıcı ve doğrulayıcı faktör analizleri ile yol analizi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, akademik öz-yeterliğin karamsarlık ve özgüven eksikliği ile doğrudan ilişkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığını, buna karşılık iyimserliğin güçlü ve negatif bir ilişki gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur. Akademik öz-yeterlik ile iyimserlik arasındaki etkileşim anlamlı bulunmuştur. Basit eğim analizi, yüksek iyimserlik düzeylerinde akademik öz-yeterliğin daha düşük karamsarlık ve özgüven eksikliği ile ilişkili olduğunu, düşük iyimserlik düzeylerinde ise bu ilişkinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığını göstermiştir. Çıkarımsal analizleri tamamlayıcı olarak, yordayıcı örüntüleri incelemek amacıyla permütasyon önemi, SHAP ve kısmi bağımlılık analizi dâhil olmak üzere açıklanabilir yapay zekâ tekniklerinden yararlanılmıştır. XAI bulguları, iyimserlikle ilişkili özelliklerin öne çıktığını ve akademik öz-yeterliğin yordayıcı katkılarının daha heterojen bir yapı sergilediğini göstermiştir. Genel olarak bulgular, akademik öz-yeterlik ile istihdama ilişkin karamsarlık ve özgüven eksikliği arasındaki ilişkinin öğrencilerin iyimserlik düzeyine bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Akademik Öz-Yeterlik
• İşsizlik Kaygısı
• İyimserlik
• Düzenleyici Etki
• Açıklanabilir Yapay Zekâ

Destekleyen Kurum

Araştırmanın ortaya konulmasında herhangi bir mali destek alınmamıştır.

Etik Beyan

Bu makale Araştırma ve Yayın Etiğine uygundur. Beyan edilecek herhangi bir çıkar çatışması yoktur. Araştırmanın ortaya konulmasında herhangi bir mali destek alınmamıştır. Makale yazım ve intihal/benzerlik açısından kontrol edilmiştir. Makale, “en az iki dış hakem” ve “çift taraflı körleme” yöntemi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Makalede kullanılan ölçek için yazar(lar) tarafından ölçeğin orjinal sahibinden izin alındığı beyan edilmiştir. Yazar(lar), dergiye imzalı “Telif Devir Formu” belgesi göndermişlerdir. Bu araştırmanın yapılması ile ilgili olarak Isparta Uygulamalı Bilimler Üniversitesi Etik Komisyonundan 15/01/2026 tarih ve 222/12 sayılı “Etik İzni Belgesi” alınmıştır. Bu çalışmanın hazırlanması sırasında yazar(lar) yazma süreçlerinde yapay zekâ ve yapay zekâ destekli teknolojiler kullanmamıştır. Yazarlar, bu çalışmanın yayınlanmadığını veya herhangi bir yayın kuruluşuna yayınlanmak üzere gönderilmediğini kabul etmektedir. Yazar, çalışmanın tüm bölümlerine ve aşamalarına tek başına katkıda bulunmuştur.

The Moderating Role of Optimism in the Relationship Between Academic Self-Efficacy and Unemployment Anxiety: An Explainable AI Approach

Öz

The growing number of university graduates and limited employment opportunities increase students’ concerns about future employment. This study examined the relationship between academic self-efficacy and the pessimism and lack of self-confidence dimension of unemployment anxiety and tested whether optimism moderated this relationship. The sample consisted of 447 students from Isparta University of Applied Sciences selected through convenience sampling. Descriptive statistics, exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, and path analysis were used to test the moderation model. The results showed that academic self-efficacy did not have a statistically significant direct association with pessimism and lack of self-confidence, whereas optimism showed a strong negative association. The interaction between academic self-efficacy and optimism was significant. Simple slope analysis indicated that academic self-efficacy was associated with lower pessimism and lack of self-confidence at higher levels of optimism, whereas this association was not statistically significant at lower levels of optimism. To complement the inferential analyses, explainable artificial intelligence techniques, including permutation importance, SHAP, and partial dependence analysis, were used to examine predictive patterns. The XAI findings highlighted the prominence of optimism-related features and more heterogeneous predictive contributions of academic self-efficacy. Overall, the findings suggest that the relationship between academic self-efficacy and employment-related pessimism and lack of self-confidence is conditional on students’ level of optimism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Academic Self-Efficacy
• Unemployment Anxiety
• Optimism
• Moderating Effect
• Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Destekleyen Kurum

No financial support was received for the conduct of this research.

Etik Beyan

This paper complies with Research and Publication Ethics, has no conflict of interest to declare, and has received no financial support. The article has been checked for spelling and plagiarism/similarity. The article was evaluated by "at least two external referees" and "double blinding" method. For the scale used in the article, it is declared by the authors that permission was obtained from the original owner of the scale. The author(s) sent a signed "Copyright Transfer Form" to the journal. Regarding the conduct of this research, an “Ethics Permission Certificate” dated 15/01/2026 and numbered 222/12 was obtained from the Ethics Committee of the University of Isparta Applied Sciences. / During the preparation of this work the author(s) did not use AI and AI-assisted technologies in the writing processes. Authors acknowledged that this study has not been published or submitted to any publication outlets for publication. The author contributed to all sections and stages of the study alone.

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