The effects of non-integrated basin planning and improper land use on flooding: The case of Ürgüp (Nevşehir)

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 88, 199 - 209, 29.12.2025

Emre Elbaşı

https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1800621

Öz

This study aims to quantitatively reveal the combined effects of non-integrated basin planning and improper land use on flood risk, focusing on the Ürgüp-Damsa Stream basin. Flood management plans often disregard basin integrity by adhering to administrative boundaries, thereby neglecting the cumulative impact of tributaries that affect a settlement. This methodological flaw, combined with increased surface runoff from uncontrolled land-use change, elevates the risk to dangerous levels. In this study, the 120 km² basin area considered in the official plan was compared to the actual 383 km² basin area calculated with an integrated approach. Analysis of CORINE data from 1990 and 2018 showed that land-use change increased the runoff coefficient by 18.75%. Scenario analyses concluded that while the official 100-year design discharge (Q100) is 155 m³/s , the potential discharge reaches 393 m³/s when the basin's integrated and current conditions are considered. This discrepancy, where the actual potential risk is over 2.5 times the planned risk, explains the inadequacy of existing infrastructure and proves the predictability of floods, highlighting the urgent necessity of shifting to a holistic basin management paradigm.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Flood , Integrated Basin Management , Land Use Change

Bütüncül olmayan havza planlaması ve hatalı arazi kullanımının taşkın üzerindeki etkileri: Ürgüp (Nevşehir) örneği

Öz

Bu çalışma, bütüncül olmayan havza planlaması ve hatalı arazi kullanımının sel/taşkın riski üzerindeki birleşik etkilerini Damsa Çayı havzası (Ürgüp-Nevşehir) özelinde nicel olarak ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Taşkın yönetimi planları, genellikle idari sınırlar esas alınarak havzanın bütünlüğünü göz ardı etmekte ve bir yerleşimi etkileyebilecek yan kolların kümülatif etkisini ihmal etmektedir. Bu metodolojik zafiyet, kontrolsüz arazi kullanım değişimlerinin yüzeysel akışı artırmasıyla birleşerek riski tehlikeli boyutlara taşımaktadır. Çalışmada, resmi planda ele alınan 120 km²'lik havza alanı, bütüncül yaklaşımla hesaplanan 383 km²'lik gerçek havza alanıyla karşılaştırılmıştır. 1990 ve 2018 CORINE verileriyle yapılan analiz, arazi kullanım değişiminin akış katsayısını %18,75 artırdığını göstermiştir. Senaryo analizleri sonucunda, 100 yıllık tasarım debisinin (Q100) resmi plandaki 155 m³/s değerine karşın havzanın bütüncül ve güncel durumu dikkate alındığında potansiyel olarak 393 m³/s'ye ulaştığı hesaplanmıştır. Planlanan risk ile gerçek potansiyel risk arasındaki bu 2.5 katı aşan fark, sahadaki altyapı yetersizliğini ve taşkınların öngörülebilirliğini kanıtlamakta, bütüncül havza yönetimi paradigmasına acil geçişin zorunluluğunu vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Taşkın , Bütünleşik Havza Yönetimi , Arazi Kullanımı Değişimi

Kaynakça

• Akbaş, A., Görüm, T., & Özdemir, H. (2025). Türkiye’de taşkınların FLOODOT tabanlı incelenmesi ve farklı veri kaynaklarının mekânsal karşılaştırılması. Turkish Journal of Civil Engineering, 36(6), 75-96. https://doi.org/10.18400/tjce.1618212
• Arnold, C. L., & Gibbons, C. J. (1996). Impervious surface coverage: The emergence of a key environmental indicator. Journal of the American Planning Association, 62(2), 243–258. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944369608975688
• Awaad, M. S., Habib, E. H., & Saad, H. A. (2025). Effect of Managing Tributary Flows on Flood Risk in Transitional Low-Gradient River Systems. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 18(3), e70094. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70094
• Borga, M., Anagnostou, E. N., Blöschl, G., & Creutin, J. D. (2011). Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project. Environmental Science & Policy, 14(8), 834-844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.017
• Büttner, G., Feranec, J., & Jaffrain, G. (2004). Corine land cover update 2000 (Technical Report No. 89). European Environment Agency.
• Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., & Mays, L. W. (1988). Applied hydrology. McGraw-Hill.
• CT Haber. (2019, Ağustos 20). Ürgüp’te sağanak ve dolu etkili oldu. https://www.cthaber.com/haber/3005294/urgupte-saganak-ve-dolu-etkili-oldu
• Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Salinas, J. L., & Blöschl, G. (2013). Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(8), 3295–3303. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013
• European Environment Agency (EEA). (1994). CORINE land cover technical guide. European Environment Agency.
• European Environment Agency (EEA). (2019). CLC2018 Technical Guidelines. (EEA Technical Report). European Environment Agency.
• FİB Haber. (2024, Haziran 8). Ürgüp’te sağanak yağış sele neden oldu. https://www.fibhaber.com/urgup/urgup-te-saganak-yagis-sele-neden-oldu
• Gaume, E., Bain, V., Bernardara, P., Newinger, O., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A., Blaškovičová, L., Blöschl, G., Borga, M., Dumitrescu, A., Fantini, S., Faustmann, J., Grosz, B., Guran, S., Gulde, M., Hengl, T., Hrachowitz, M., Hysa, A., Ivanova, K., … Zoccatelli, D. (2009). A compilation of data on European flash floods. Journal of Hydrology, 367(1–2), 70–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.028
• Global Water Partnership (GWP). (2000). Integrated water resources management (TAC Background Papers No. 4).
• Gumbel, E. J. (1958). Statistics of extremes. Columbia University Press.
• Gupta, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., & Zondervan, R. (2013). ‘Glocal’ water governance: a multi-level challenge in the anthropocene. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(6), 573-580. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.09.003
• Haberler.com. (2024, Temmuz 10). Nevşehir’de sağanak yağış sele neden oldu. https://www.haberler.com/nevsehir-de-saganak-yagis-sele-neden-oldu-7341850-haberi/
• Hawker, L., Uhe, P., Paulo, L., Sosa, J., Savage, J., Sampson, C., & Neal, J. (2022). A 30 m global map of elevation with forests and buildings removed. Environmental Research Letters, 17(2), 024016. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4d4f
• Hussain, M.M., Shampa, Islam, J., Ahmed, M.S., Rahman, M.A., Rahman, M.M. (2022). The impact of small tributaries flood in the braided plain of large river. In Tarekul Islam, G.M., Shampa, S., Chowdhury, A.I.A. (Eds.), Water management: A view from multidisciplinary perspectives. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95722-3_12
• IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (V. Masson-Delmotte et al., Eds.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
• Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation methods. Griffin.
• Kundzewicz, Z. W., Kanae, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Handmer, J., Nicholls, N., Peduzzi, P., Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Arnell, N., Mach, K., Muir-Wood, R., Brakenridge, G. R., Kron, W., Benito, G., Honda, Y., Takahashi, K., & Sherstyukov, B. (2014). Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.857411
• Le Pennec, J.-L., Bourdier, J.-L., Froger, J.-L., Temel, A., Camus, G., & Gourgaud, A. (1994). Neogene ignimbrites of the Nevşehir plateau (Central Turkey): Stratigraphy, distribution and source constraints. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 63(1–2), 59–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(94)90018-3
• Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3), 245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
• Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., & Thieken, A. (2010). Assessment of economic flood damage. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10(8), 1697–1724. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010
• Moss, T. (2004). The governance of land use in river basins: prospects for overcoming problems of institutional interplay with the EU Water Framework Directive. Land Use Policy, 21(1), 85-94.
• Moss, T. (2012). Spatial Fit, from Panacea to Practice. Ecology and Society, 17(3), https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-04821-170302
• Muşkara Haber. (2024, Ağustos 24). Ürgüp’te sel sularına kapılan vatandaşlar kurtarıldı. https://www.muskarahaber.com/urgupte-selde-mahsur-kalan-vatandaslari-belediye-ekipleri-kurtardi
• Ozdemir, H., & Elbaşı, E. (2015). Benchmarking land use change impacts on direct runoff in ungauged urban watersheds. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 79, 100-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2014.08.001
• Ozturk, M.Z., Ozkan, D., Simsek, M. (2019). Kapadokya bölgesinin drenaj özellikleri. Cografya Dergisi, 38, 23-34. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2019-0002
• Pasquarè, G. (1968). Geology of the Cenozoic volcanic area of Central Anatolia. Geologica Romana, 7, 57–204.
• Poesen, J., & Hooke, J. (1997). Erosion, flooding and channel management in Mediterranean environments of southern Europe. Progress in Physical Geography, 21(2), 157–199. https://doi.org/10.1177/030913339702100201
• Sarikaya, M. A., Çiner, A., & Zreda, M. (2015). Fairy chimney erosion rates on Cappadocia ignimbrites, Turkey: insights from cosmogenic nuclides. Geomorphology, 234, 182-191.
• Sayers, P., Li, Y., Galloway, G., Penning-Rowsell, E., Shen, F., Wen, K., Chen, Y., & Le Quesne, T. (2013). Flood RİSK MANAGEMENT: A strategic approach. UNESCO.
• Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63(324), 1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
• Şen, Z. (2009). Taşkın afet ve modern hesaplama yöntemleri. Su Vakfı Yayınları.
• Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü. (2019). Kızılırmak havzası taşkın yönetim planı. T.C. Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service (USDA-SCS). (1986). Urban hydrology for small watersheds (TR-55).
• Weng, Q. (2001). Modeling urban growth effects on surface runoff with the integration of remote sensing and GIS. Environmental Management, 28(6), 737–748. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010258
• Wheater, H. S., & Evans, E. C. (2009). Land use, water management and future flood risk. Land Use Policy, 26, S251–S264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.08.019