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Review on modeling and adaptation strategies of the future distribution of olives (Olea europaea L.) in Türkiye depending on climate change

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 86, 105 - 120, 30.12.2024

Muhammed Mustafa Özdel , Beyza Ustaoğlu , İsa Cürebal

https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1524269

Öz

This study aims to determine the bioclimatic variables influencing the distribution of olive (Olea europaea L.) using the MaxEnt modeling tool and to create current potential and future suitability models for cultivation. Bioclimatic variables from the recent past (1970-2000) have been used to determine the current potential habitat areas. Future predictions have been made based on bioclimatic variables from the MRI-ESM2-0 model, using the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios for the periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. The modelling indicated that Bio12 (annual precipitation), Bio7 (annual temperature range), and Bio9 (mean temperature of the driest quarter) are the key bioclimatic variables influencing olive distribution. Future climate models simulated under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios suggest that, compared to the present, suitable areas are likely to shift toward higher altitudes and more northern latitudes in the future. Additionally, it is projected that regions previously unsuitable for olive cultivation may become more conducive in the future. In particular, it is expected that the Black Sea and Marmara coastlines will become more suitable for olive cultivation in the coming years. It is essential to develop and implement climate change adaptation strategies to mitigate the challenging impacts of climate change on olives and ensure their sustainability. In this context, the study addresses factors such as irrigation and soil management, biodiversity, pest and disease control, harvesting techniques, technology use, and education, and evaluates them in terms of adaptation strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Olea europaea L Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Species Distribution Model MaxEnt

Teşekkür

We would like to thank Prof. Dr. Ahmet MERT, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Özdemir ŞENTÜRK and the trainers of the event organized by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (“TUBITAK 2237-BİDEB, Calculation and Mapping of Land Diversity with Entropy Based Algorithms”; Event No: 1129B372201166) for sharing their knowledge and experience with us in the technical part of the study.

Kaynakça

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İklim değişikliğine bağlı olarak zeytinin (Olea europaea L.) Türkiye'de gelecekteki dağılımının modellenmesi ve uyum stratejileri üzerine bir inceleme

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 86, 105 - 120, 30.12.2024

Muhammed Mustafa Özdel , Beyza Ustaoğlu , İsa Cürebal

https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1524269

Öz

Bu çalışma, MaxEnt modelleme aracı kullanılarak zeytinin (Olea europaea L.) dağılımında etkili olan biyoiklim değişkenlerini belirlemeyi ve yetiştiricilik için günümüzdeki potansiyel ile gelecekteki olası uygunluk modellerini oluşturmayı amaçlamaktadır. Günümüzdeki potansiyel habitat alanlarının belirlenebilmesi için yakın geçmişe (1970-2000) ilişkin biyoiklim değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Gelecek tahminleri ise MRI-ESM2-0 modelinin SSP2-4.5 ve SSP5-8.5 emisyon senaryolarına dayalı olarak 2041-2060 ve 2081-2100 dönemlerine ait biyoiklim değişkenlerinden yararlanılarak yapılmıştır. Modelleme sonucunda, zeytinin dağılımına en fazla katkı sağlayan değişkenlerin Bio12 (yıllık yağış), Bio7 (yıllık sıcaklık değişim aralığı) ve Bio9 (en kurak 3 ayın ortalama sıcaklığı) olduğu belirlenmiştir. SSP2-4.5 ve SSP5-8.5 senaryolarından simüle edilen gelecek iklim modelleri, genel olarak günümüzle kıyaslandığında, uygun alanların gelecekte daha yüksek rakımlı alanlara ve kuzey yönüne doğru kayma olasılığı gösterebileceğini tahmin etmektedir. Ayrıca daha önce zeytin yetiştiriciliğine elverişsiz olan bazı alanların, gelecek dönemlerde daha uygun hale gelebileceğini öngörmektedir. Özellikle, ilerleyen yıllarda Karadeniz ve Marmara kıyılarının zeytin yetiştiriciliği için daha elverişli hale gelmesi beklenmektedir. İklim değişikliğinin zeytin üzerindeki zorlayıcı etkilerini hafifletmek ve sürdürülebilirliğini sağlamak amacıyla iklim değişikliğine uyum stratejilerinin geliştirilmesi ve uygulanması önemlidir. Bu doğrultuda, çalışmada sulama ve toprak yönetimi, çeşit seçimi, hastalık ve zararlılarla mücadele, hasat teknikleri, teknoloji kullanımı ve eğitim gibi faktörler ele alınmış ve uyum stratejileri açısından değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Zeytin İklim Değişikliği Uyum Stratejisi Tür Dağılım Modeli MaxEnt

Teşekkür

Çalışmanın teknik kısmında bilgi ve tecrübelerini bizimle paylaşan Prof. Dr. Ahmet MERT’e, Doç. Dr. Özdemir ŞENTÜRK’e ve Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu tarafından düzenlenen etkinliğin (“TÜBİTAK 2237-BİDEB, Arazi Çeşitliliğinin Entropi Temelli Algoritmalar ile Hesaplanması ve Haritalanması”; Etkinlik No: 1129B372201166) eğitmenlerine teşekkür ederiz.

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  • West, A. M., Kumar, S., Brown, C. S., Stohlgren, T. J., & Bromberg, J. (2016). Field validation of an invasive species Maxent model. Ecological informatics, 36, 126-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2016.11.001
  • Yavaşlı, D. D., & Erlat, E. (2023). Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices. International Journal of Climatology, 43(13), 6207-6224. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8201
  • Yukimoto, S., Kawai, H., Koshiro, T., Oshima, N., Yoshida, K., Urakawa, S., Tsujino, H., Deushi, M., Tanaka, T., ... Ishii, M. (2019). The Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model version 2.0, MRI-ESM2. 0: Description and basic evaluation of the physical component. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 97(5), 931-965. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2019-051
Toplam 72 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Biyocoğrafya, Coğrafyada Ekoloji, Fiziksel Coğrafya ve Çevre Jeolojisi (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Muhammed Mustafa Özdel 0000-0003-0715-4566

Beyza Ustaoğlu 0000-0002-9876-3027

İsa Cürebal 0000-0002-3449-1595

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 29 Temmuz 2024
Kabul Tarihi 26 Ağustos 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Sayı: 86

Kaynak Göster

APA Özdel, M. M., Ustaoğlu, B., & Cürebal, İ. (2024). İklim değişikliğine bağlı olarak zeytinin (Olea europaea L.) Türkiye’de gelecekteki dağılımının modellenmesi ve uyum stratejileri üzerine bir inceleme. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi(86), 105-120. https://doi.org/10.17211/tcd.1524269
 Kapak Resmi İndir

Yayıncı: Türk Coğrafya Kurumu