The Disruptive Innovation Potential of Decentralized Cryptocurrencies

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 2, 369 - 379, 24.08.2020

Tuna Can Güleç

https://doi.org/10.18657/yonveek.605395

Öz

The cryptocurrency market could only accomplish a small fraction of what it was capable of since Bitcoin was first popularized. Improving upon Bitcoin, the development of technically superior cryptocurrencies couldn’t manage to create a disruptive innovation impact on the market either. In order to understand why the cryptocurrency market couldn’t fulfill its perceived disruptive innovation potential, this study systematically reviews the literature. Relevant literature has been thoroughly searched and several studies that use certain methodologies are included in the review. These studies have been categorized based upon their approaches to the subject as supportive studies and contradictory studies. Within these categories, subsections have been created based on the findings and conclusions of each study reviewed. Following the theoretical discussion, the rationality of the movements in the market has been analyzed with regression models supported by sentimental estimation model outputs. According to the interpretation of the studies in the literature, cryptocurrencies seem to need a properly functioning natural selection mechanism, which will only allow the survival of the currencies that have the best “fit” to the needs of the market. Additionally, the findings of the regression analysis are in line with the majority of literature and suggest that the cryptocurrency prices are straight out unpredictable even with the usage of advanced AI algorithms that take human irrationality into account. Collectively, evidence suggests that in its current structural form, the ICO based cryptocurrency market is set to fail in a gradual pattern.
Key Words: Financial Markets, Fintech, Cryptocurrency
JEL Classification: G14, F30, E30

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Markets, Fintech, Cryptocurrency

Merkezi Olmayan Kriptopara Birimlerinin Yıkıcı Yenilik Potansiyeli

Öz

Kriptopara piyasaları, Bitcoin ilk popüler hale geldiğinden bu yana kendisinden beklenenlerin sadece küçük bir kısmını gerçekleştirebildi. Bitcoinden sonra gelen ve teknik olarak üstün niteliklere sahip kriptopara birimlerinin geliştirilmesi, pazarda da yıkıcı bir inovasyon etkisi yaratmayı başaramadı. Kriptopara birimi piyasasının neden algılanan yıkıcı yenilik potansiyelini yerine getiremediğini anlamak için, bu çalışma ilgili yazını sistematik bir şekilde incelemektedir. Yazın detaylıca incelenmiş ve belirli ölçütleri karşılayan birçok çalışma derlemeye dâhil edilmiştir. Bu çalışmalar, konuya yaklaşımlarına dayanarak, destekleyici çalışmalar ve çelişkili çalışmalar olarak kategorize edilmiştir. Bu kategorilerde, incelenen her çalışmanın bulgularına ve sonuçlarına dayanarak alt bölümler oluşturulmuştur. Teorik tartışma sonrasında, sezgisel yapay zeka algoritma çıktılarıyla desteklenen bir regresyon modeli kullanılarak piyasadaki fiyat hareketlerinin rasyonelliği test edilmiştir.Yazındaki çalışmalardan yola çıkarak varılan sonuca göre, kriptopara birimleri, sadece piyasa ihtiyaçlarına en uygun niteliklere sahip olan para birimlerinin hayatta kalmasına izin verecek şekilde çalışan bir doğal seçilim mekanizmasına ihtiyaç duymaktadır. Ek olarak, regresyon analizinin bulguları yazın ile eş yönlüdür ve kripto para birimi fiyatlarının, insan irrasyonelliğini hesaba katan gelişmiş AI algoritmalarının kullanımıyla bile doğrudan tahmin edilemez olduğunu göstermektedir. Tüm bunlar bir bütün olarak, mevcut ICO tabanlı kriptopara piyasasının kademeli bir şekilde başarısız olacağına işaret etmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Finansal Piyasalar, Fintek, Kriptopara
JEL Sınıflandırması: G14, F30, E30

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Markets, Fintech, Cryptocurrency

Kaynakça

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