Research Article

Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model

Number: 1 August 18, 2026
TR EN

Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model

Abstract

Ensuring sufficient, healthy, and accessible food for the entire population remains a critical challenge for Benin. Despite policy efforts, rice imports have continued to rise over the past decades. This study applies a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to annual data from 1970 to 2023 to identify the main economic drivers of this dependency, focusing on rice yield, GDP per capita, and the exchange rate. Unit root tests indicate that all variables are stationary in first differences, and Johansen tests confirm the absence of cointegration, implying no long-run equilibrium relationship. The results show that rice yield exerts a significant negative effect on rice imports, with higher productivity reducing import dependence. In contrast, GDP per capita and the exchange rate have no statistically significant impact. Granger causality tests corroborate the direct influence of yield on imports. These findings underscore the central role of agricultural productivity in shaping import patterns and provide evidence-based policy insights to promote sustainable domestic production and strengthen food security in Benin.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Agricultural Economics

Journal Section

Research Article

Publication Date

August 18, 2026

Submission Date

February 2, 2026

Acceptance Date

March 24, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: 1

APA
Gassi, K. R., Gültekin, U., & Hayran, S. (2026). Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model. Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 1. https://doi.org/10.54975/isubuzfd.1880261
AMA
1.Gassi KR, Gültekin U, Hayran S. Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model. ISUBU JAF. 2026;(1). doi:10.54975/isubuzfd.1880261
Chicago
Gassi, Koffi Romaric, Ufuk Gültekin, and Seyit Hayran. 2026. “Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model”. Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, no. 1. https://doi.org/10.54975/isubuzfd.1880261.
EndNote
Gassi KR, Gültekin U, Hayran S (August 1, 2026) Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model. Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 1
IEEE
[1]K. R. Gassi, U. Gültekin, and S. Hayran, “Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model”, ISUBU JAF, no. 1, Aug. 2026, doi: 10.54975/isubuzfd.1880261.
ISNAD
Gassi, Koffi Romaric - Gültekin, Ufuk - Hayran, Seyit. “Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model”. Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi. 1 (August 1, 2026). https://doi.org/10.54975/isubuzfd.1880261.
JAMA
1.Gassi KR, Gültekin U, Hayran S. Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model. ISUBU JAF. 2026. doi:10.54975/isubuzfd.1880261.
MLA
Gassi, Koffi Romaric, et al. “Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model”. Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, no. 1, Aug. 2026, doi:10.54975/isubuzfd.1880261.
Vancouver
1.Koffi Romaric Gassi, Ufuk Gültekin, Seyit Hayran. Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model. ISUBU JAF. 2026 Aug. 1;(1). doi:10.54975/isubuzfd.1880261

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