Benin’de Pirinç İthalat Bağımlılığının Belirleyicileri: Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) Modelinden Kanıtlar

Öz

Benin’de tüm nüfusa yeterli, sağlıklı ve ulaşılabilir gıda sağlamak önemli bir sorun olmaya devam etmektedir. Uygulanan politik çabalara rağmen, son on yıllarda pirinç ithalatı artmaya devam etmiştir. Bu çalışma, 1970-2023 yıllarına ait yıllık veriler kullanarak pirinç ithalatına olan bağımlılığın temel ekonomik belirleyicilerini ortaya koymak amacıyla Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) modelini uygulamaktadır. Analizde pirinç verimi, kişi başına düşen GSYH ve döviz kuru değişkenlerine odaklanılmıştır. Birim kök testleri, tüm değişkenlerin birinci farkta durağan olduğunu göstermekte; Johansen testi ise uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin bulunmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, pirinç veriminin ithalat üzerinde anlamlı ve negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu, yani verim artışının ithalat bağımlılığını azalttığını göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, kişi başına GSYH ve döviz kuru değişkenlerinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamıştır. Granger nedensellik testleri de verimin ithalat üzerindeki doğrudan etkisini doğrulamaktadır. Bulgular, tarımsal verimliliğin ithalat dinamiklerini şekillendirmedeki merkezi rolünü vurgulamakta ve Benin’de sürdürülebilir yerli üretimi teşvik ederek gıda güvenliğini güçlendirmeye yönelik kanıta dayalı politika önerileri sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Benin
• Pirinç
• Tepki fonksiyonu
• VAR modeli

Determinants of Rice Import Dependency in Benin: Evidence From A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model

Öz

Ensuring sufficient, healthy, and accessible food for the entire population remains a critical challenge for Benin. Despite policy efforts, rice imports have continued to rise over the past decades. This study applies a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to annual data from 1970 to 2023 to identify the main economic drivers of this dependency, focusing on rice yield, GDP per capita, and the exchange rate. Unit root tests indicate that all variables are stationary in first differences, and Johansen tests confirm the absence of cointegration, implying no long-run equilibrium relationship. The results show that rice yield exerts a significant negative effect on rice imports, with higher productivity reducing import dependence. In contrast, GDP per capita and the exchange rate have no statistically significant impact. Granger causality tests corroborate the direct influence of yield on imports. These findings underscore the central role of agricultural productivity in shaping import patterns and provide evidence-based policy insights to promote sustainable domestic production and strengthen food security in Benin.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Benin
• Impulse Response
• Rice
• VAR Model

Kaynakça

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