İSLAMİ VE GELENEKSEL ENDEKSLERDE FİYAT TAHMİNİ: HİPERPARAMETRE OPTİMİZASYONU İLE HİBRİT MODEL ÖNERİLERİ

Öz

Hisse senedi fiyat tahmini karmaşık, durağan ve doğrusal olmayan bir zaman serisi tahminidir ve birçok faktörden etkilenmektedir. Bu durum da hisse senetlerinin gelecek fiyat tahminlerinin basit modellerle tahmin edilmesini zorlaştırabilmektedir. Dolayısıyla piyasa katılımcılarının kayıpları en aza indirmek ve karlarını maksimize etmek amacıyla bilinçli karar almaya çalıştıkları bu karmaşık ve dinamik piyasada, fiyatların doğru tahmini büyük önem arz etmektedir. Bu motivasyonla çalışmada İslami ve geleneksel kriterlerle oluşturulmuş seçili endekslerin gelecek fiyatlarının tahmin edilmesi ve en başarılı modelin tespit edilerek piyasa katılımcılarına fiyat tahminlemesi için model önerisi getirilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu kapsamda, çalışmada 6 geleneksel, 6 İslami olmak üzere 12 Endeks ARIMA, XGBoost, LSTM ve Karar Ağacı yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Analizler neticesinde makine öğrenimi modellerinin gelenekseldendaha üstüm performans gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgularla elde edilen en iyi parametreler aracılığıyla XGBoost-Karar Ağacı, LSTM- XGBoost ve LSTM-Karar Ağacı hibrit modelleri oluşturulmuştur. Bu doğrultuda optimize edilen hiper parametreler ile 1 geleneksel, 3 makine öğrenimi ve 3 hibrit model olmak üzere 7 algoritma ile 12 Endeks toplamda 84 farklı modelle analiz edilmiştir. Model performansını ölçmek için RMSE değerleri tespit edilmiş ve geliştirilen hibrit modeller kapsamında BİST Katılım 100 Endeksi’nde LSTM-Karar Ağacı; diğer tüm Endekslerde ise LSTM-XGBoost modelinin en iyi tahminci olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tahminleme
• XGBoost
• LSTM
• Karar Ağacı
• Hibrit model.

PRICE FORECASTING IN ISLAMIC AND CONVENTIONAL INDICES: HYBRID MODEL PROPOSALS WITH HYPERPARAMETER OPTIMIZATION

Öz

Stock price forecasting is a complex, stationary, and nonlinear time series estimation problem influenced by numerous factors. This complexity renders basic models inadequate for producing accurate forecasts of future stock prices.. Thus, precise price forecasting is crucial in this intricate and dynamic market where participants strive to make well-informed decisions to minimize losses and maximize profits. Motivated by this necessity, the present study aims to forecast future prices of selected indices constructed according to both Islamic and traditional criteria and to propose the most effective forecasting model for market participants. . Twelve indices- six traditional and six Islamic- were examined in this context using the ARIMA, XGBoost, LSTM, and Decision Tree methods. The investigation revealed that machine learning models outperformed the conventional approaches in terms of outcomes. The optimal parameters were then acquired and XGBoost-Decision Tree, LSTM-XGBoost, and LSTM-Decision Tree hybrid models were developed based on the results obtained. In this regard, 84 distinct models with seven algorithms- 1 conventional, 3 machine learning, and 3 hybrid models- with optimized hyperparameters were applied to the 12 indices. RMSE values were used to evaluate model performance. The LSTM-Decision Tree model was shown to be the greatest predictor for the BIST Participation 100 Index, while the LSTM-XGBoost model was the best predictor for all other indices.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Forecasting
• XGBoost
• LSTM
• Decision Tree
• Hybrid model.

Kaynakça

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