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The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye

Sayı: 125 17 Ocak 2026
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The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye

Öz

The study examines the formation of bubbles in the housing market using monthly data from 2010 to 2024 for Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Türkiye. To investigate the existence of price bubbles, the SADF (Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller) and GSADF (Generalized SADF) tests were applied. The findings show that housing price bubbles formed across Türkiye and in three major cities between 2017 and 2018, and that these bubbles did not deflate in the relevant years. In this study, Probit regression analysis was performed to determine the variables affecting the likelihood of housing bubbles forming in Türkiye. While the dates of bubble formation were taken as the dependent variable, the Central Bank Leading Indicators Index (CBLI), Central Bank Policy Interest Rates (CBPI) and VIX fear index were included in the model as independent variables. It was determined that increases in the CBLI, CBPI and the VIX Index increase the likelihood of bubble formation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Housing Bubble, CBRT Housing Price Index, Türkiye Housing Sector, VIX Fear Index

Kaynakça

  1. Adekoya, O. B., & Oliyide, J. A. (2022). Commodity and financial markets’ fear before and during COVID-19 pandemic: Persistence and causality analyses. Resources Policy, 76, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102598.
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  6. Akkuş, H. T. (2021). Housing price bubbles and factors affecting the formation of bubbles: The Turkish case. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (46), 271-292. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.835374.
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  10. Case, K. E., & Shiller, R. J. (2003). Is there a bubble in the housing market? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003(2), 299–362. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2004.0004.

Kaynak Göster

APA
Toy, A., Hazar, A., & Babuşcu, Ş. (2026). The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 125, 175-196. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1769769
AMA
1.Toy A, Hazar A, Babuşcu Ş. The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları. 2026;(125):175-196. doi:10.33203/mfy.1769769
Chicago
Toy, Ayşegül, Adalet Hazar, ve Şenol Babuşcu. 2026. “The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye”. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, sy 125: 175-96. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1769769.
EndNote
Toy A, Hazar A, Babuşcu Ş (01 Ocak 2026) The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları 125 175–196.
IEEE
[1]A. Toy, A. Hazar, ve Ş. Babuşcu, “The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye”, Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, sy 125, ss. 175–196, Oca. 2026, doi: 10.33203/mfy.1769769.
ISNAD
Toy, Ayşegül - Hazar, Adalet - Babuşcu, Şenol. “The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye”. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları. 125 (01 Ocak 2026): 175-196. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1769769.
JAMA
1.Toy A, Hazar A, Babuşcu Ş. The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları. 2026;:175–196.
MLA
Toy, Ayşegül, vd. “The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye”. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, sy 125, Ocak 2026, ss. 175-96, doi:10.33203/mfy.1769769.
Vancouver
1.Ayşegül Toy, Adalet Hazar, Şenol Babuşcu. The Presence and Determinants of Price Bubbles in the Housing Markets: Empirical Findings from Türkiye. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları. 01 Ocak 2026;(125):175-96. doi:10.33203/mfy.1769769