Operational Assessment of Spring Late and Autumn Early Frost Risk across Türkiye (1901–2022): Implications for Fruit Production and Apiculture
Abstract
Climate change not only leads to an increase in mean temperatures but also causes substantial shifts in the timing of temperature extremes. Frost events, particularly when they occur during periods of biological onset or cessation, can result in severe adverse impacts on agricultural production and ecosystem functioning. Spring late frosts can cause significant yield losses during flowering and fruit set, while autumn early frosts may lead to premature termination of the growing season and indirect losses in both crop production and apicultural activities. In this study, the spatial distribution and probability of spring late frosts (March–April) and autumn early frosts (September–October) across Türkiye were assessed at the national scale using monthly minimum temperature data for the period 1901–2022. Frost risk was calculated for each grid cell as the ratio of years in which the monthly minimum temperature fell below defined threshold values (Tmin ≤ −2.0 °C and, alternatively, Tmin ≤ 0 °C) to the total number of years. The results reveal the existence of two distinct frost-risk windows across Türkiye during both spring and autumn, generating a compound climatic pressure on fruit production and apiculture. Rather than focusing solely on long-term climatological means, this study identifies season-specific frost-risk windows that are directly relevant for seasonal management decisions in fruit production and apiculture, providing regionally differentiated information to support adaptation planning for growers and beekeepers under ongoing climate variability.
Keywords
Apiculture, climate change, frost risk, fruit production, minimum temperature, operational climatology, Türkiye
Supporting Institution
This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
Ethical Statement
This study did not involve human participants, experimental animals, or any biological material requiring ethical approval. All analyses were conducted using publicly available, secondary climate data. Therefore, ethical committee approval was not required.
Thanks
The authors thank the institutions that provided access to the climate datasets used in this study.
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