Operational Assessment of Spring Late and Autumn Early Frost Risk across Türkiye (1901–2022): Implications for Fruit Production and Apiculture
Öz
Climate change not only leads to an increase in mean temperatures but also causes substantial shifts in the timing of temperature extremes. Frost events, particularly when they occur during periods of biological onset or cessation, can result in severe adverse impacts on agricultural production and ecosystem functioning. Spring late frosts can cause significant yield losses during flowering and fruit set, while autumn early frosts may lead to premature termination of the growing season and indirect losses in both crop production and apicultural activities. In this study, the spatial distribution and probability of spring late frosts (March–April) and autumn early frosts (September–October) across Türkiye were assessed at the national scale using monthly minimum temperature data for the period 1901–2022. Frost risk was calculated for each grid cell as the ratio of years in which the monthly minimum temperature fell below defined threshold values (Tmin ≤ −2.0 °C and, alternatively, Tmin ≤ 0 °C) to the total number of years. The results reveal the existence of two distinct frost-risk windows across Türkiye during both spring and autumn, generating a compound climatic pressure on fruit production and apiculture. Rather than focusing solely on long-term climatological means, this study identifies season-specific frost-risk windows that are directly relevant for seasonal management decisions in fruit production and apiculture, providing regionally differentiated information to support adaptation planning for growers and beekeepers under ongoing climate variability.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Apiculture, climate change, frost risk, fruit production, minimum temperature, operational climatology, Türkiye
Destekleyen Kurum
Bu çalışma, kamu, ticari veya kâr amacı gütmeyen kuruluşlardan herhangi bir özel finansal destek almamıştır.
Etik Beyan
Bu çalışma insan katılımcılarını, deneysel hayvanları veya etik kurul onayı gerektiren herhangi bir biyolojik materyali içermemektedir. Tüm analizler açık erişimli ikincil iklim verileri kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu nedenle etik kurul onayına ihtiyaç duyulmamıştır.
Teşekkür
Yazarlar, bu çalışmada kullanılan iklim veri setlerine erişim sağlayan kurumlara teşekkür eder.
Kaynakça
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